Geopolitiske omvæltninger forude: USA er hastigt på vej til at miste sin rolle som global politimand, og magtskiftet er allerede i fuld gang i flere globale regioner. USA’s mangler aktuelt en global geopolitisk strategi, og det vil give usikkerhed om de geopolitiske styrkeforhold de kommende år, hvor både Kina, Rusland og Indien fortsat vil arbejde for at styrke deres indflydelse i de nære regioner. Nogenlunde sådan lyder den overordnede konklusion i en håndfuld analyser af global geopolitik ved indgangen til 2016. Analyserne, som Økonomisk Ugebrev har gennemgået, er udarbejdet af internationale tænketanke og af erfarne analytikere med geopolitik som speciale.
Eksempelvis skriver tænketanken Center for Strategic & International Studies i rapporten “ 2016 – Global Forecast ”, at: “America may be the only global superpower, but in most regions it is actually in second or third place. Brazil dominates South America. Russia seeks to restore its control over its “near abroad.” China pursues regional “hegemony,” and India has capabilities that are the envy of any European power. If we concentrate our full resources in any region, the United States is overpowering, but the global scope of our concerns limits our ability to do this—we face requirements, sometimes self-imposed, that our competitors do not. The experience of Iraq and Afghanistan shows that even overwhelming military power does not always bring happy results. Unlike the Cold War, we are not in a global contest. We are in a series of regional contests, some military, some not. America doesn’t have a strategy for this new environment.”
Time Magazine skriver, at: “America’s once predominant influence is fading fast. In the Middle East, the most powerful terrorist organization in history occupies large sections of Iraq and Syria. Russia has paralyzed Ukraine and is bombing unchecked in Syria. China is challenging U.S. military power in East Asia and Washington’s institutional power everywhere else. Obama now relies on sanctions, drones and cybercapabilities to advance U.S. interests—blunt tools that do little to build the consensus needed to solve the world’s most complex problems.”
Tilsvarende skriver analysefirmaet BCA i en analyse om de geopolitiske udsigter, at: “The world’s great powers are diverging. Multipolarity, in which different nations go their own way in the absence of a world leader, is the new status quo. The concentration of global GDP, imports, and military spending are all diminishing, while the number of inter-state conflicts, including nations latching onto each other’s internal conflicts, is rising. Global trade is weakening in a cyclical sense and, by many measures, globalization itself appears to have peaked.” Videre hedder det, at “The fruits of multipolarity are visible in Russian interventionism abroad but, more consequentially, in the gradual dissolution of the special cooperative framework between the United States and China. Washington is becoming less accommodative with its foreign policy and Beijing more preoccupied with internal control and external security. Lesser powers are also pursuing independent foreign policies – including Saudi Arabia’s decision to maintain high levels of oil production, stealing market share from its Shiite rivals Iran and Iraq, which will leave OPEC ineffectual throughout the year and require production losses or cuts elsewhere before the market can rebalance.”
I en opsummering af geopolitiske scenarier for 2016 skriver anerkendte Georg Friedman, tidligere Stratfor, nu analysehuset Geopolitical Future også, at USA er på vej til at dreje sit engagement i internationale konflikter: ”The United States will continue to shift its strategy in shaping global affairs from primarily using its own military force to promoting a balance of power within regions. The U.S. relationship with Iran will strengthen regardless of the future of Iran’s nuclear program. The U.S. will not engage in Ukraine but will encourage a balance of power between Russia and Europe. The Russians and the Americans will also reach an implicit or explicit settlement in 2016 regarding the conflict in Ukraine.”
I relation til konflikten i Irak og Syrien hedder det, at ”The Islamic State’s main focus will be to defend its core turf in Syria and Iraq, where it will be able to hold on to most of the areas it currently holds and even push into areas that are either held by the Bashar al-Assad regime or by rival rebel groups. Turkey will take a more active role in Syria to protect itself, with the support of the United States. (… ) Similarly, the Turks, concerned by the Russian presence in Syria and other issues including the decline in the global price of energy, will move closer to the United States and more hostile to the Russians. Next year will see the emergence of Turkey as a regional power in the Middle East.” Om immigrationskrisen i Europa hedder det, at “the economic crisis, refugee crisis and now the concern over terrorism following the attacks in Paris will change the face of the European Union by forcing the EU to limit the movement of people in 2016 and the movement of goods later. Member states will increase their autonomy and the EU’s power will be diminished.”