Resume af mediekommentarer:
De amerikanske aktiemarkeder er på rekordtid gået fra frygt og massive salg til rendyrket FOMO. Udsigten til en mulig aftale om at genåbne Hormuzstrædet sendte olieprisen ned omkring 6 procent, obligationsrenterne lavere og aktierne kraftigt op. S&P 500 og Dow Jones nåede nye rekorder, mens Nasdaq steg 3,5 procent på én dag og næsten 10 procent fra sidste uges bund.
Men opturen hviler på et skrøbeligt fundament. Der foreligger endnu ingen konkret aftale, og oliemarkedet reagerede primært på optimistiske udmeldinger fra USA’s finansminister Scott Bessent. Samtidig viser olieprisernes terminsstruktur fortsat fysisk knaphed, mens angreb på russisk energiinfrastruktur udgør en overset forsyningsrisiko.
Aktiestigningerne blev desuden forstærket af en voldsom short squeeze og aggressiv handel i kortfristede optioner. Særligt AI-, chip- og megatechaktier trak markedet op. De syv største teknologiselskaber er steget næsten 10 procent på fire dage, mens S&P 500 uden AI-relaterede selskaber stort set stod stille.
Faldende oliepriser dæmpede inflationsfrygten og sendte amerikanske renter ned. Dollaren blev svækket, mens guld og bitcoin steg.
Markedets reaktion signalerer derfor ikke nødvendigvis en varig forbedring i økonomien. Den ligner snarere et teknisk og positionsdrevet rally efter en periode med kraftig risikoreduktion. Samtidig er værdiansættelserne igen ekstreme: Den globale aktiemarkedsværdi i forhold til verdens BNP nærmer sig historiske rekordniveauer.
Den centrale risiko er, at investorerne allerede har priset et perfekt udfald ind: fred, lavere inflation, stabile renter og fortsat AI-vækst. Hvis blot én af disse forudsætninger brister, kan bevægelsen fra panik til eufori hurtigt gå den modsatte vej.
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Uddrag fra CNBC, Polymarket og Zerohedge:
With the market having been trained to ignore Trump’s ‘deal’ declarations, TsySec Bessent was trotted out on CNBC this morning to say a deal is nigh, slamming oil prices lower… which pushed stocks higher (to record highs) and slammed bond yields lower. Equities were a FOMO melt-up with chasey ‘spot up, vol-up’ dynamics and a massive short squeeze. Gold gained as the dollar rolled over, bitcoin extended gains.
Even shorter... we just went from one-month lows to record highs in five trading sessions…with one veteran equity vol trader reflecting on the last couple of days in his usual acerbic manner “…they’ve gone from GTFO to full fucking FOMO in four days… this is not sustainable.”
Translation: ‘Mission Accomplished’… ‘everything is awesome’ all rolled into one day…
Before we dive in, we thought a quick glimpse at the triplet of oil-bonds-stocks might offer some context…
Oil
Bessent 1 – 0 Trump is the them of the day as the Treasury Secretary’s words sent Polymarket odds of an Iran deal by the end of July up above 80%…
Bessent said in an interview with CNBC that “there is a chance we may have a deal today or tomorrow to open the strait.” Qatar, meanwhile, said a proposed de-escalation resolution was “being circulated between the parties,” though cautioned that there’s no solid agreement yet.
The crude market didn’t care about caution, with traders dumping WTI down around 6%
“This is a market that consistently reprices risk on the prospect of flows resuming rather than the details required to achieve them,” said Rebecca Babin, senior energy trader at CIBC Private Wealth Group.
“As this cycle has repeated, traders have become less willing to buy dips and more inclined to sell rallies, as upside moves have consistently lacked follow-through while downside moves have tended to unfold with greater velocity.”
Nevertheless, today they bought Bessent’s banalities and sold the entire energy complex.
Dated Brent tumbled back below $90 (still above those end July lows though) and the prompt curve notably backwardated (signaling physical tightness persists)…
And in some really good news for the average Joe (and inflation), refined product prices are plunging…
The latest comments from Qatar on potential draft language for a deal appear to be part of a joint push to reopen Hormuz, while leaving the “even more difficult topics for later talks,” said Helge Andre Martinsen, senior oil analyst at DNB Bank ASA.
It seems everyone has forgotten that Ukraine’s shifting strikes across Russia’s oil supply chain increase the risk of further disruptions. Large refineries, oil tankers, and major pipeline infrastructure were hit at least 30 times in July — the second-highest monthly number of attacks since Russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022.
But, before we leave oil-land, we note that, according to data from Kpler’s Bridgeton Research Group, several technical factors are also amplifying the sell-off with (trend-following) CTAs slashing long positions to sit at 36% long in Brent, compared with 73% at the start of Tuesday’s session as WTI tested down to its 200DMA today…
Oil down, stocks to the moon… you know how it goes by now!
Stocks
Where to start? Well at the end… Nasdaq roared 3.5% higher today (its best day since May 2025 and up almost 10% from the Leopold lows last Wednesday) as the S&P and The Dow rip to new record highs (both up around 2% on the day)…
Nasdaq broke back above its 50DMA…
On the back of yet another massive short squeeze (the biggest 4-day squeeze since last Thanksgiving)…
…with the classic FOMC-chasey ‘Spot Up, Vol Up’ regime back in play (which never ends well)…
…and 0-DTE traders were buying straddles/strangles (i.e. non-directional bets on increased vol)…
Despite the exuberance, Goldman’s trading desk noted that activity levels were at a 4 out of 10 on the floor (with overall market volumes are down 7% vs the 5dma), skewed 11% better to buy across the floor
- LO’s are skewed better to buy led by demand in info tech and industrials vs supply in macro products, energy, and consumer staples
- HFs are skewed better to buy led by demand in macro products, hcare, comms svcs, and consumer disc vs supply in info tech, energy, and materials
Why the big move?
Here’s Goldman’s top tech trader, Peter Callahan, with some thoughts:
- cleaner positioning [see latest from GS PB re recent de-risking]
- improved technicals [Mo’ factor bounce and/or reduced levered ETF footprints, et al]
- tidier valuations [NDX fwd P/E at a ~10% discount to its 5 year avg]
- strong(er) fundamentals / visibility [e.g improved ROIC sentiments post earnings last week].
As a sentiment check, Callahan notes a number of investor questions yday/today on the “feel” out there – e.g. squeezy? hated rally? signs of re-risking? catalysts? Semis vs Hyperscalers? chase or technical bounce?
Under the hood…
MegaCap tech melted back up to a new record high
Mag7 is up almost 10% in the last four days… that’s cajillions in market cap…
AMZN topped $3 trillion market cap, NVDA regained $5 trillion while AAPL has faded…
Momentum bounced bigly, now up over 22% from last week’s lows (though still below Friday’s opening high)…
…back up to its ‘average’…
Momentum strength credited to the long leg outperforming with 12 month winners…
US memory stocks were up today (even as CXMT surged in market cap)…
AI themes leading the charge higher in long mo with optical, AI infra beneficiaries, semis , data centers, and memory all ripping…
Note above – the S&P 500 Ex-AI is unchanged over the last four days.
Hyperscalers have led the charge higher too… and while their credit risk has compressed, it remains a reality check that all those funding fears have not just evaporated…
Goldman’s flows guru, Lee Coppersmith noted that they are seeing massive demand for short-dated index upside this week (primarily S&P and Nasdaq) following drastic de-risking thru July. To underscore that point – yesterday saw SPX 1-month 25delta put/call skew drop by the largest amount since Nov 6th 2024 … the day after Trump won the US election…
Notably, Coppersmith says today’s move was even more dramatic… spot up/ vol up again, plus another huge reset lower in put/call skew.
Rates
Treasury yields tumbled today (down 3-5bps across the curve) as signs of progress toward a diplomatic resolution of the Iran war sent oil prices lower, curbing expectations for more than one Fed rate-hike in the coming year.
“In an environment where Fed credibility is at stake and some Fed officials are losing patience with the fact that inflation has been above the Fed’s 2% target for five years, we think that Treasuries will continue to be driven by movements in oil prices,” said Priya Misra, portfolio manager at JPMorgan Asset Management.
While the entire curve dropped today (no twist), it remains notably steeper since Warsh (30Y +10bps, 2Y -10bps)…
Weak factory orders data and Job Openings didn’t really drive too much reaction in the short-end today but rate-hike odds did decline (as oil’s drop eases inflation fears)…
“Falling oil prices should ease inflation expectations and support a more stable Fed policy outlook,” said Sean Simko, head of fixed-income investment management at SEI Investments Corp.
Everything Else
While Bessent was beaming over his black gold battering, he will not be best pleased by the drop in JPY – which has now erased the entire intervention spike…
…as we said – you’re gonna need a bigger boat, mate!
The dollar limped lower…
Gold rallied up to $4100, but could not hold it again – staying in its recent range…
Bitcoin also pushed ahead, holding above $64,000…
Finally, the Buffett Indicator is back up near all-time highs…
The last time that global market cap was this high relative to global GDP, things didn’t end great, with MSCI World Index dropped 30% over the next 9 months (taking 26 months to make a new high).
It’s different though this time, right? Semis aren’t cyclical, AGI will save us all (deflationary utopia), and funding for all this malarkey will magically appear.
But the real question is – would we be bouncing like this is Leopold hadn’t liquidated? (and do we really think he was the only one balls-deep levered in all this AI malarkey?)
All eyes on SPCX tonight…
