Resume af teksten:
Aktiemarkederne i Europa steg fredag, men risikoappetitten faldt i løbet af aftenen. S&P 500 lukkede en smule højere, mens bekymringer om krigen i Den Persiske Golf påvirkede markederne. Oliepriser steg til $99 pr. tønde (Brent), men faldt senere til $92 pr. tønde. USA og Iran har undgået militære angreb i tre dage, og der foregår samtaler mellem Iran og Oman. Asiens markeder stiger, og renterne falder lidt. Rentemeddelelser fra USA, Storbritannien og Japan er i fokus i ugen, mens forventninger til en ECB-renteforhøjelse i september gør eurozonens inflation vigtigere. USA’s finansministerium har ikke udpeget Kina som valutamanipulator. Inflation i eurozonen og ECB’s politik er centrale emner, da energipriserne stiger. Vækst i Norden ventes at stige, med GDP-forventninger på 1,2% K/K. NIER’s barometer offentliggøres torsdag.
Fra SEB:
Global key stories
Stock markets in Europe rose on Friday, but risk appetite weakened sharply during the evening , even though the S&P 500 closed marginally higher. Concerns about the war in the Persian Gulf continue to be the focus of the market. Oil prices rose by $2-3 to $99/barrel (Brent) on Friday . During the morning, however, sentiment has turned again after neither the US nor Iran carried out any attacks in three days. Trump is said to have ordered a de-escalation of the US attacks on Iran to create space for new talks, according to US Ambassador to the UN Mike Waltz (interview with Fox News). At the same time, talks are being held between Iran and Oman to get traffic going through the Strait of Hormuz. Oil prices have fallen to $92 per barrel and stock market futures in both the US and Europe are pointing 0.5-1.0% up, but there is great uncertainty – among other things, Saudi Arabia is reported to have carried out attacks against the Houthi rebels in Yemen. Stock markets in Asia are rising in most places and interest rates are falling by a few basis points. Interest rate announcements from the US, UK and Japan are in focus this week. Although no one expects any interest rate changes, the signals about policy going forward will be highly interesting. In addition, high expectations of an interest rate hike from the ECB in September make inflation in the euro area more important than usual. The U.S. Treasury Department says China’s monetary policy is unclear, but refrained from labeling the country as a currency manipulator in its semi-annual evaluation of trading partners’ monetary policies. President Xi meets Trump in Washington on September 24 . Several important reports from AI companies during the week (Microsoft/Meta on Wednesday and Amazon/Apple on Thursday).
The Fed’s interest rate announcement on Wednesday is the highlight of the week. None of the 80 analysts who responded to Bloomberg’s survey expect a hike, but the market is pricing in +8 basis points, corresponding to just over a 30% probability. In line with rising oil prices, expectations of interest rate hikes have increased again and the market is now pricing in a 40-45 basis point higher interest rate in December. It will be interesting to see what the new Fed chief says about the prospects for a hike in September at the press conference. However, there is a high risk that Warsh is reluctant to send clear signals, in line with the new communication strategy he wants the Fed to introduce. Read more about our expectations here.
Inflation in the euro area will be very interesting. The July outcome is one of only two monthly results to be published before the ECB’s next interest rate decision on 10 September. Inflation looks set to rise slightly, partly due to higher energy prices, and we believe that core inflation may also pull slightly upwards. However, the impression is that core inflation is so far moving sideways and indicators indicate that this trend will continue, at least in the near term. The question is whether this is enough for the ECB. The interest rate announcement last week did not change market expectations and the probability of a hike in September is still priced at around 90%. Lagarde was careful to emphasize that incoming data will be crucial, but at the same time reiterated that inflation risks are greater on the upside. In addition, she hinted that there is a hawkish faction in the Executive Board that wanted to raise the interest rate as early as July. We are sticking to our forecast of an unchanged interest rate in September , but it will probably be necessary for energy prices to fall back somewhat. A downside surprise in Friday’s inflation figures would, of course, help. More about the ECB here.
Nordic key stories
Growth will be in focus during the week and there are many indications that GDP will bounce back in the second quarter after the unexpected fall of 0.2% Q/Q in the first quarter. The not always – or perhaps almost never – completely reliable GDP indicator was on average 2% higher in April and May than in the first quarter. Although a downward rebound in June seems likely, we expect GDP to increase by a strong 1.2% Q/Q, corresponding to 2.5% y/y.
We think that both incoming data and sentiment indicators provide some support for our relatively optimistic GDP forecast for 2026 of 2.6%, compared to the Riksbank’s 2.2%. At the same time, there is great uncertainty because the flash estimate for GDP is usually both volatile and difficult to interpret. We also believe that the NIER’s barometer may continue to rise in July after the relatively large increase in June. However, the continued weakness of the labour market militates against growth becoming an important factor for monetary policy in the near term. The flash estimate for GDP will be published on Wednesday and the barometer on Thursday.
Kilde: SEB, https://research.sebgroup.com/macro-ficc/reports/79109
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