Uddrag fra ØU FINANS, som bringer et ugentligt uddrag af analyser fra globale finanshuse:
Goldman Sachs: AI/data centers’ global power surge and the Sustainability impact. “For years, power demand from data centers was flat despite a near tripling in the data workload. Now with the pace of power e-sciencies decelerating and AI demand building, our updated analysis implies data center power demand is poised to grow 160% by the end of the decade, which should drive a significant acceleration to a level of electricity growth in the US and Europe not seen in a generation. We believe this should enhance investment opportunities across the power supply chain benefiting from Green Capex, volume growth and innovation. We continue to see a myriad of potential benefits from AI towards advancing Sustainable goals; our expectations for a more than doubling of data center carbon dioxide emissions in 2030 vs. 2022 will likely focus Sustainable investors on measuring how AI’s benefits can oset the expected increase in data center-related emissions.”
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Deutsche Bank: Latest in AI: Tech earnings, small AI models, and election “deepfakes”. The reaction by AI-obsessed investors to last week’s earnings reports from four of the “Magnificent Seven” big tech companies was clear: show me the money. Microsoft and Alphabet, which said their investment in AI is paying off with rising cloud revenues, saw their shares pop. Tesla jumped in part as it portrayed itself as an AI company. But Meta saw its shares tumble after it said it is investing more than expected in AI and that it will take years for that investment to bear fruit. Big Tech are keeping the rest of the market afloat. This week’s chart from Factset shows the positive YoY earnings growth projected for the S&P 500 in Q1 ‘24 would not have been possible without the contribution of five of the Magnificent Seven. “
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Unicredit: Det værste i tyske økonomi ligger nu bag os. ”To give the most important message right in the beginning: Yes, it is true that special circumstances played an important role in lifting economy activity in 1Q24. But no, this is not a flash-in-the-pan, i.e. the German economy is unlikely to fall back into recessionary territory in the further course of 2024. In our view, the worst is finally behind us, as rising global trade but also lower inflation rates compared to last year will probably lead to further moderate growth in the next few quarters. Such a forecast is not just wishful thinking but, in the meantime, has been corroborated by such a forward-looking and reliable indicator as the Ifo business expectations component. The latter has managed a turnaround across sectors (…).
The “special-circumstances” story for 1Q24 is about the construction sector. Unusually mild winter weather led to a temporary strong rise in construction activity. Based on so far publicly available data, construction activity surged about 4½% in January/February compared to 4Q23. While a setback in March seems to be inevitable, the construction sector probably still posted its strongest growth in nearly three years. To be sure, forward-looking business expectations of companies in the housing sector and commercial real estate have also started rising, albeit from depressed levels. In other words, it is likely that the downward pressure in construction activity will probably ease in the second half of 2024. But to be crystal-clear, the 1Q24 construction data are statistical noise without any fundamental meaning.”
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ING: Udsigt til lavere oliepriser og lavere naturgaspriser i Europa. ”The geopolitical risk premium continues to fade as tensions between Israel and Iran have eased. There are also some hopes for a potential ceasefire between Israel and Hamas. (…) European natural gas prices weakened yesterday. TTF settled 2.99% lower on the day as the forecast for the next week suggests warmer-than-usual weather. This follows a cold spell across large parts of Europe in April that led to storage declines on some days. Current storage is just under 62% full, which takes it from record highs for this time of year to similar levels seen in 2020. Lower Norwegian gas flows to Europe due to outages have also contributed to the slower inventory build. Daily Norwegian gas flows are down more than 20% from early April. However, some of this maintenance has been shortened, and flows should recover sooner than previously expected. We still remain relatively bearish towards the European natural gas market and expect TTF to average EUR25/MWh over much of the injection season.”
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Morten W. Langer
