Fra Factset – analytikerestimaterfor S&P 500 selskaber – aktuel opdatering:
Analysts and corporations continue to lower expectations for earnings for the S&P 500 for the first quarter. On a per-share basis, estimated earnings for the first quarter have fallen by 8.0% since December 31. This percentage is above the 1-year, 5-year, and 10-year averages for an entire quarter. The largest decreases in expected earnings growth have occurred in the Energy, Materials, and Consumer Discretionary sectors. Companies have also lowered the bar for earnings for Q1, as 82 companies in the index have issued negative EPS guidance, while just 16 companies have issued positive EPS guidance.
The percentage of companies issuing negative EPS guidance is 84% (82 out of 98), which is well above the 5-year average of 68%. As a result of the downward revisions to earnings estimates, the year-over-year estimated earnings growth rate for Q1 2014 has declined to -4.9% today from an expectation of 3.8% at the start of the quarter (December 31). The Energy sector is expected to report the largest year over-year decrease in earnings of all ten sectors, while the Health Care and Financial sectors are predicted to have the highest earnings growth rates for the quarter. The estimated sales growth rate for Q1 2015 of -2.8% is below the estimate of 1.6% at the start of the quarter.
The Energy sector is expected to report the largest year-over-year decrease in sales of all ten sectors. On the other hand, the Health Care sector is expected to report the highest growth in sales for the quarter. Looking at future quarters, analysts are expecting year-over-year declines in earnings to continue through Q215, and year-over-year declines in revenue to continue through Q315. Despite the estimate reductions, analysts are looking for record level EPS to resume in Q4 2015.
Analysts also expect net profit margins to continue to rise to record levels (based on per-share estimates) in the 2nd half of 2015. The forward 12-month P/E ratio is now 16.6, which is above the 5-year and 10-year averages. During the upcoming week, 1 S&P 500 company is scheduled to report results for the fourth quarter and 9 S&P 500 companies are scheduled to report results for the first quarter.
