Omfattende teknisk analyse update fra BNP Paribas – læs analysen her
The Euro Stoxx 50, CAC 40 and DAX 30 rose by 12%, 12.5% and 19.5% respectively following the mid-January bullish breakout, when major European equity indices broke through the strong resistance that capped the bullish trend throughout 2014. Levels for the Euro Stoxx 50, CAC 40 and DAX 30 were at 3300, 4500 and 10000 respectively. This technical event closed bullish continuation rectangle patterns, sending out a strong buying signal on European equity indices. This recent continuation of the move up has been supported by the 20 day moving average on which investors took recurring long delta position during price consolidation events. Even though a small bearish consolidation is likely in the short term, further upside is expected by end of H1 2015.
The IBEX 35 and FTSE MIB 40 sent out new bullish signals in March 2015 confirming a long term bullish trend. Both the IBEX 35 and FTSE MIB 40 have broken major resistance on the upside, set at 11150 and 22340 respectively, capping the bullish trend that we’ve witnessed since mid 2014. The IBEX 35 recently closed a 1150 basis bullish continuation rectangle likely to support further upside moves to the major resistance at 12200 by end of H1 2015. FTSE MIB 40 has now retraced more than 86.4% of the bearish trend built from January 2010 to June 2012. It is now likely to see a 100% retracement giving a bullish target located at 24160 by end of H1 2015.
The FTSE 100 has been a relatively flat market (rectangle) from July 2013 until now with prices oscillating between the support at 6400 and the extreme resistance level at 6900. The mid March 2015 bull trap (new upside breakout failure) has further reinforced the 6900 resistance level. The index is currently back close to the extreme resistance level located at 6900 that might continue to cap the bullish trend in H1 2015. Contrary to some US and most European equities, UK equities have not yet broken out to the upside. At the end of February 2015, the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial saw a low-momentum breakout of major resistance levels of 2095 and 18050 respectively. We had several non confirmations in key-sectors as a classic warning signal (Dow Theory) together with a number of bearish divergences in price indicators. This resulted in a bull trap with prices failing to break these key resistance levels to the upside.
The S&P 500 and Dow Jones reintegrated respective neutral rectangles built since October 2014. Investors might use this pattern for tactical short term trading: (i) buying [1985;2010] for the S&P 500 and [17350;17500] for DJIA (ii) and selling 2095 for the S&P 500 and 18050 for the DJIA. A bullish breakout of these 2 resistance levels would signal a new buy recommendation on the S&P and DJIA. Contrary to the S&P 500 and DJIA, in mid-February 2015, the Russell 2000, Nasdaq 100 and Nasdaq Composite successfully broke through resistance levels that has previously capped the bullish trend witnessed since November 2014. These levels now offer strong support for prices, which stand at 1210 for Russell 2000, 4810 for Nasdaq Composite and 4320 for Nasdaq 100. This technical event closed bullish continuation rectangle patterns, sending out a buy signal on these US equity indices. Further upside moves are now expected by the end of H1 2015. E
