Analyse fra BNP Paribas:
Eurozone: ECB likely to stress the need to stay the course with asset purchases Tuesday’s ECB bank lending survey was broadly positive, showing a significant easing of lending standards for firms (Chart 1). The better data flow will feed into what we expect to be a more upbeat assessment of the growth outlook at Wednesday’s ECB press conference. This may further fuel the debate about the ECB downsizing its asset-purchase programme, as the better the economy looks, the more vocal the hawkish Council members are likely to become. As expectations are crucial to the effectiveness of quantitative easing (QE), rowing back on purchases could be very damaging and it would seem that the most influential members of the ECB Council share our thinking.
The account of the 5 March policy meeting gave short shrift to the idea of scaling back. Indeed, it was made clear that full implementation was required if the ECB was to adhere to its mandate. Moreover, it was emphasised that the staff projections were based on the full delivery of policy decisions taken so far and that March’s upward revisions did not imply that the measures were less necessary. We expect ECB chief Mario Draghi to put this message across loud and clear at Wednesday’s press conference, but it may not silence the doubters. The account of March’s meeting also revealed considerable scepticism over the upgraded staff growth and inflation projections. For this reason, while we expect the economic assessment to sound more upbeat, it is likely to be laced with caution. Risks will remain to the downside and the central bank is likely to reiterate that there is no room for complacency.
