Fra Atlanta Fed
Latest forecast: 0.3 percent — March 4, 2019
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2019 is 0.3 percent on March 4, unchanged from March 1. After this morning’s construction spending release from the U.S. Census Bureau, the nowcast of first-quarter real nonresidential structures investment decreased from -0.8 percent to -2.7 percent and the nowcast of first-quarter real residential investment increased from -13.2 percent to -11.0 percent.
The next GDPNow update is Wednesday, March 6. Please see the “Release Dates” tab below for a list of upcoming releases.
Related Resources
- GDPNow Forecast
- GDPNow Model Data and Historical Forecasts
- GDPNow Release Dates
- GDPNow RSS feed
- GDPNow: A Model for GDP “Nowcasting,” Working Paper 14-7
- macroblog on Building a Better Model: Introducing Changes to GDPNow
- Modifications to GDPNow Model Forecast
- GDPNow App for Mobile Phones
- Subscribe to Email Updates
Do you want to ask a question?
What Is GDPNow?
In this video economist Pat Higgins, GDPNow’s creator, discusses the difference between nowcasting and forecasting.
Going Inside GDPNow
In this Economy Matters podcast, Atlanta Fed policy adviser and economist Pat Higgins, the creator of GDPNow, discusses the tool, how it works, and some of the challenges involved in measuring the economy.
The growth rate of real gross domestic product (GDP) measured by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) is a key metric of the pace of economic activity. It is one of the four variables included in the economic projections of Federal Reserve Board members and Bank presidents for every other Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. As with many economic statistics, GDP estimates are released with a lag whose timing can be important for policymakers. For example, of the four scheduled 2014 release dates of an “advance” (or first) estimate of GDP growth, two are on the second day of a scheduled FOMC meeting with the other two on the day after the meeting. In preparation for FOMC meetings, policymakers have the Fed Board staff projection of this “advance” estimate at their disposal. These projections—available through 2008 at the Philadelphia Fed’s Real Time Data Center—have generally been more accurate than forecasts from simple statistical models. As stated by economists Jon Faust and Jonathan H. Wright in a 2009 paper, “by mirroring key elements of the data construction machinery of the Bureau of Economic Analysis, the Fed staff forms a relatively precise estimate of what BEA will announce for the previous quarter’s GDP even before it is announced.”
The Atlanta Fed GDPNow model also mimics the methods used by the BEA to estimate real GDP growth. The GDPNow forecast is constructed by aggregating statistical model forecasts of 13 subcomponents that comprise GDP. Other private forecasters use similar approaches to “nowcast” GDP growth. However, these forecasts are not updated more than once a month or quarter, are not publicly available, or do not have forecasts of the subcomponents of GDP that add “color” to the top-line number. The Atlanta Fed GDPNow model fills these three voids.