Markedet er blevet for optimistisk, hedder det i en analyse fra Nordea, som er bekymret over markedsudviklingen. Macro hedge funds har været for optimistiske.
Uddrag fra Nordea:
The market has had several bright spots to focus upon, rate cuts, liquidity support, and a pick-up in global manufacturing sentiment. By now however, the market may have become complacent. We lower our EUR/USD, EUR/NOK & EUR/SEK forecasts.
For sure, the market has had several bright spots to focus on. Central bank rate cuts, central bank liquidity support, and a gradual pick-up in global manufacturing sentiment to name but a few. For instance, the normal pattern is that equities (or risk appetite, if you will) keep delivering after a significant bottom in the global manufacturing PMI – not that we’d like to argue anything is normal nowadays. A rising PMI has nonetheless emboldened the bulls.
And for sure, the usual pattern is that equities rise if global PMI has bottomed. But nothing has been usual as of late. If markets didn’t really react negatively to all the bad news which has been delivered in 2019, aren’t they already pricing-in all the good things that may or may not come?
For instance, it may well be that market participants have become complacent. For instance, macro hedge funds are the most optimistic since July, after which risk appetite faltered. And the roughly similar bullishness back in 2018 preceded the crash in the fourth quarter of that year. In short, we remain worried about the downside and remain underweight equities vs bonds.
