ABN Amro ser kun moderate økonomiske virkninger af en truende krig mellem Iran og USA. Hverken oliepriser eller aktiemarkederne er blevet stærkt påvirket.
Uddrag af ABN Amro:
The recent escalation in US-Iran tensions and the rise in oil prices has dented investor sentiment, leading to a correction in equity prices on the one hand, and a rally in government bond prices, the yen and gold, on the other. Market implied inflation expectations have risen hand-in-hand with oil prices, not only since the escalation, but since the start of last month. Although investors are starting to price in some risk that the situation gets much worse, the fall-out up until now has limited implications for the outlook for global growth and inflation. The changes we have seen in oil prices and financial conditions simply have not been significant enough to date. There might be an impact on business and/or consumer confidence over and above these effects, though that remains to seen. So overall, we stick to our current views on the global outlook, which is below consensus but for reasons unrelated to the US-Iran tensions.