Trods den megen fokus på grønne investeringer, så venter Pimco, at der fortsat vil være betydelige olieinvesteringer, og det er ikke sikkert, at der foreløbig sker et stort løft i vedvarende investeringer. Energiinvesteringer kræver derfor nøje analyser.
Uddrag fra Pimco:
Over the next three to five years, we expect substantial oil demand growth to continue as long as the global economy expands.
However, the top line shows 2018 investment levels and you can see that slightly more investment went into oil and gas upstream than renewables.
But over the next five to 10 years, as the energy transition progresses, there are two scenarios presented. The first scenario: both energy investment in upstream oil and gas as well as renewables need to grow from current levels. In the second scenario we see an actual drop in the required investment in oil and gas upstream and a very substantial increase in renewables. It is in this latter scenario, where the greatest vulnerabilities may arise should there be a mismatch between where demand is growing and where our investment and supply is going. We can see a situation in which this could be one of the bigger surprises that brings the oil market back into the forefront of investment opportunities.
Energy investors against this backdrop need to be diligent in their investment decisions.
One of the main conclusions investors can take away from this is that there’s significant uncertainty in the outlook. This significant uncertainty drives investment opportunities that requires active management to capture.
And an incredible amount of due diligence to adjust to both the energy transition and the policy changes that are happening globally.
