Banken ABN Amro stiller et provokerende spørgsmål: Hvem er bedst til at vurdere den økonomiske udvikling – virksomhederne eller bankerne? Trods pæne ZEW-tal om tyske virksomheders forventninger, så falder efterspørgselen efter banklån. Eurozonen udvikler sig fortsat svagt.
Uddrag fra ABN Amro:
Euro Macro: Germany’s ZEW jumps, but loan demand slumps – European data releases brought seemingly conflicting snapshots at the state of the eurozone economy. While the ZEW index of analysts rose significantly in January, commercial banks reported that loan demand from companies slumped over the last 3-months (see below for detail on both reports). On the surface therefore, companies have a different take than analysts. We think that the weakness in loan demand adds to other signals that the eurozone economy is currently barely growing. At the same time the turn in the ZEW provides evidence that the German economy will bottom out and improve in coming months. We would caution however that while the ZEW is good at spotting turning points, it is much less accurate in predicting the strength of the swings in activity. We remain of the view that the eurozone economy will remain weak in the next few months before only a modest recovery later in the year.
