Der var ikke mange nyheder fra Lagarde’s første pressemøde som ECB-chef, men som ING tolker “uglen Lagarde”, så venter ECB, at inflationen langsomt kryber opad, hvis eurozonens økonomi stabiliseres i 2020.
Uddrag fra ING:
A subtle change in the ECB’s reading of underlying inflation measures, the announcement of the strategy review and an owl brooch on Christine Lagarde’s jacket… this was the sum of the excitement at the ECB meeting.
What is the toughest task for an ECB watcher? Writing a review of an ECB meeting at which hardly anything has happened. Today’s meeting was such an example. In short, there were three takeaways from the meeting: the ECB kept its monetary policy unchanged, slightly altered its view on inflation and officially announced the start of the strategy review.
Changes in the inflation assessment. Probably the most remarkable piece of information of the entire press conference was another change in the ECB’s assessment of inflation development. Today, the ECB noted that “measures of underlying inflation have remained generally muted, although there are further indications of a moderate increase…”. Back in December, this was still a ‘mild’ increase. In October, all measures of underlying inflation were muted. A very gradual and subtle change but it is a change. In case the Eurozone economy stabilises and rebounds in the course of 2020, this gradual increase in underlying inflation could, in our view, continue. The longer it takes for a recovery to unfold, the higher the risk that the recent increase in underlying inflation is a delayed consequence of the cycle, rather than a leading indicator for headline inflation.
