Merrill har analyseret markedsudviklingen relation til 90’erne, der endte med it-boblen. Merrill konkluderer, at markedet er mere sundt i dag med lavere p/e-værdier (18,5 mod 25,2), og at vi ikke står over for et stort party, der bryder sammen.
Uddrag fra Merrill:
Stocks Are Not Partying Like the Late 1990s
Global equities ripped higher last year (up 27.3%), powered by the S&P 500, which
returned 31.5%, marking its strongest gain since 2013. This earnings-less increase in
stock prices lifted valuation levels to the 88th percentile of their historical range. The
forward price-to-earning ratio (P/E) rose from 14.5x at the beginning of 2019 to 18.3x
by the end, as the Federal Reserve’s (Feds) powerful pivot from a hawkish to dovish
stance and three rate cuts proved to be a foundation for investors embracing risk.
Given this experience, many have questioned whether this market is similar to that of the
late 1990s. In 1998, the Fed cut rates three times from September to November. The
S&P 500, which had been treading water before the cuts due to a number of risks such
as the Asian financial crisis, Russian ruble devaluation and debt default, and the collapse
of a giant hedge fund, put in a bottom and began its climb. From the time of the first
rate cut to the peak of the dot.com bubble in March of 2000, the S&P rose 36% and
the NASDAQ 192%.
Similar to the 2010s, the Fed had played a key role throughout the
1990s by adjusting monetary policy, thereby nursing the economy along and supporting
the longest expansion at the time at 120 months. While the cycle eventually ended
with the creation of the dot.com bubble and its subsequent crash, we are not convinced
that today’s market is in excessive territory. Despite the similarities with the late ‘90s,
including the fact that the current expansion is the longest in history at 128 months,
there are some key differences today, which we review below.
Valuations are more reasonable today
On both an absolute basis and relative to bonds, equities are more reasonably valued
today. Closing out 1999, the S&P 500 was trading at a 25.2x P/E, whereas today this
figure stands at 18.5x.
