Lande med megen turisme vil blive hårdt ramt af corona-virussen, helt op til 1 pct. af BNP, bare i kraft af manglende turisme, viser ABN Amro-analyse, men nogle lande som Kina og Tyskland vil få en gevinst, hvis deres egne indbyggere holder ferie hjemme.
Uddrag fra ABN Amro:
Global Daily – The tourism hit to global GDP + UK macro stimulus
Global Macro: Which countries would be hit the most by a collapse in global tourism? – Global tourism flows have collapsed since the outbreak of the coronavirus, either because authorities have put certain countries in a state of lock-down, or have issued negative travel advice, or because tourist have cancelled or postponed trips voluntarily. In order to assess which countries would suffer the most from this drop in cross-border tourism we have looked at World Bank data for the eurozone, the US, the UK, Japan, China and South Korea.
The eurozone data relate to the individual member states, implying that they include intra-eurozone tourism flows, which of course inflates the data when compared to larger countries such as the US, where a lot of tourism and travel is registered as being domestic. The data reveal that income from spending by foreign visitors as a share of GDP ranges from close to 1% in the US, China, Japan, South Korea and Germany, to close to 6% in Spain and close to 10% in Greece and Portugal.
If we assume that these expenditures by foreign visitors drop by 50% during a period of two months, GDP growth in Germany, the US and Japan would be around 0.1pp lower. For Spain this negative impact on growth would be around 0.5pps and for Greece and Portugal almost a full percentage point. That said, reports about the drop in tourism suggest that the risks to these calculations are tilted to the downside as the disruptions could be more sizeable and could also last longer.
Alternatively, if we look at the countries that would benefit the most if their residents decided to spend their holidays in their homeland instead of abroad, it turns out that China, the UK, Germany and a number of smaller eurozone countries have the most to gain, as they have deficits on their net tourism balances, implying that their resident spend more money abroad than foreign visitors spend in their countries. The countries that have the most to lose on balance are to be found in the eurozone periphery, specifically Greece, Portugal and Spain.
