Annonce

Log ud Log ind
Log ud Log ind
Finans

Swap lines fra centralbankerne hjælper ikke Asien

Hugo Gaarden

fredag 20. marts 2020 kl. 9:00

De asiatiske valutaer har længe været hårdt ramt, men de nye swap lines mellem centralbankerne har ikke hjulpet.

Uddrag fra Fidelity/Reuters:

Swap lines no fix for emerging markets trounced by strong dollar

Persistent weakness in emerging Asian currencies on Friday and enduring stresses in dollar funding markets showed that a spate of hurried swap lines between central banks had done little to alleviate the credit strains at the heart of the problem.

Currencies such as the South Korean won came off their lows but very slightly after the U.S. Federal Reserve signed swaps with the central banks of Australia, Brazil, South Korea, Mexico, Singapore, Sweden, Denmark, Norway and New Zealand to allow them to tap up to $450 billion.

That money is meant to help markets scrambling to get their hands on U.S. dollars because of worries about how badly the coronavirus pandemic will hit businesses and the world economy.

“More dollar swap lines with central banks will be needed before the global economy stabilizes, but some point, there will be enough dollar supply to calm the markets,” said Montreal-based Mathieu Savary, a strategist at BCA Research.

“Gold prices are an indication that we are not there yet in terms of sufficient dollar liquidity.”

Prices of safe-haven gold are down more than 3% this week as investors rushed to dump the most liquid assets in a bid to raise cash.

Dollar funding remained at a premium, with investors paying 169 basis points (bps) over interbank rates to swap 3-month Korean won into dollars, nearly three times the level last month.

They were paying 46 bps more than interbank rates to swap euros into dollars on Friday, half the level early this week but still three times the average premium last month.

The won is off the 2008 lows it hit on Thursday but still down 7% in two weeks.

The central bank swaps had managed to get more dollars into the banking system but the flow of that cash into brokerages, companies and other end users of dollar funding was still hamstrung by concerns over credit quality, analysts said.

And those would persist until wider concerns over economic activity, which has ground to a near halt on account of the virus, abated.

“While the additional swap lines announced by the Fed today seem to have given respite to a few embattled currencies, they may not be sufficient to stop the dollar in its tracks,” Oliver Allen of Capital Economics wrote, terming the swaps as “a necessary, but not sufficient, condition to turn the tide.”

“A sustained retreat of the dollar may have to wait until the coronavirus outbreak shows clear signs of fading.”

Thursday’s swaps were in addition to the permanent swaps the Fed has with central banks in Canada, the United Kingdom, Japan, Switzerland and with the European Central Bank.

The Federal Reserve provided $45 million of liquidity to foreign central banks in the latest week via its swap lines, the New York Fed said on Thursday.

The rush for dollar funding has pushed the dollar up 4% this month against a basket of peers, and sent almost every other currency reeling.

The biggest losers in emerging markets have been the higher-yielding ones sought after by portfolio managers with heavy amounts of cheap dollar funding.

The dollar is up nearly 16% this month versus the Russian rouble and 18% against the Mexican peso. Others such as the Indonesian rupiah, Turkish lira and South African rand also have suffered big losses.

Central banks in Indonesia, India, South Korea, New Zealand, Russia, Brazil and other places have intervened to prop up their currencies, offered dollar funding, or both. Denmark raised rates to defend its currency, even as other central banks cut them to bankroll businesses impacted by the pandemic.

Tilmeld dig vores gratis nyhedsbrev
ØU Top100 Finansvirksomhed

Få de vigtigste om bank, realkredit, forsikring, pension
Udkommer hver mandag.

Jeg giver samtykke til, at I sender mig mails med de seneste historier fra Økonomisk Ugebrev. Lejlighedsvis må I gerne sende mig gode tilbud og information om events. Samtidig accepterer jeg ØU’s Privatlivspolitik.

Du kan til enhver tid afmelde dig med et enkelt klik.

[postviewcount]

Jobannoncer

Analytisk stærk økonomiprofil med interesse for grøn omstilling
Region Sjælland
Udløber snart
Business Controller
Region Hovedstaden
Udløber snart
Business Controller til Molslinjen
Region Mdt
Fondskonsulent til TEC’s Økonomi- og Ledelsessekretariat
Region Hovedstaden
Chefkonsulent til finanslovsarbejde i Miljø- og Ligestillingsministeriets departement
Region Hovedstaden
Rektor til Erhvervsakademi Dania
Region Midt
Udløber snart
Administrerende direktør – Danske Advokater
Region Hovedstaden
Koordinerende økonomikonsulent til økonomistyring på ældre-og sundhedsområdet i job og velfærdsstaben
Region Midt
Udløber snart
ESG-Controller til JP/Politikens Hus
Region Hovedstaden
Fondsrådgiver til behandling af ansøgninger og projektopfølgning
Region Hovedstaden
CODAN Companies ApS søger en Transfer Pricing Specialist
Region Sjælland
Flair for økonomi og planlægning? Vi søger 2 nye kollegaer til budget- og økonomistyring
Region Hovedstaden
Informationsspecialist til Data Governance
Region Hovedstaden
Er du Midtsjællands stærkeste økonomiansvarlige?
Region Sjælland
Finance Process Owner/Product Owner til Koncernfinans
Region Hovedstaden
Chief Financial Officer til Aabenraa Havn
Region Syddanmark

Mere fra ØU Finans

Log ind

Har du ikke allerede en bruger? Opret dig her.

FÅ VORES STORE NYTÅRSUDGAVE AF FORMUE

Her er de 10 bedste aktier i 2022

Tilbuddet udløber om:
dage
timer
min.
sek.

Analyse af og prognoser for Fixed Income (statsrenter og realkreditrenter)

Direkte adgang til opdaterede analyser fra toneangivende finanshuse:

Goldman Sachs

Fidelity

Danske Bank

Morgan Stanley

ABN Amro

Jyske Bank

UBS

SEB

Natixis

Handelsbanken

Merril Lynch 

Direkte adgang til realkreditinstitutternes renteprognoser:

Nykredit

Realkredit Danmark

Nordea

Analyse og prognoser for kort rente, samt for centralbankernes politikker

Links:

RBC

Capital Economics

Yardeni – Central Bank Balance Sheet 

Investing.com: FED Watch Monitor Tool

Nordea

Scotiabank