Kina har lempet en række restriktioner for at skabe fremgang efter krisen, og der er tegn på fremgang blandt især store virksomheder. Men omvendt synes aktiviteten generelt at være under det normale niveau. Der er lang vej endnu for Kina, hedder det i en Nordea-analyse.
Uddrag fra Nordea:
China View: The long road to recovery
As the COVID-19 outbreak appears under control, China is easing restrictions to repair the economic damages. Signs of recovery are emerging, especially among large manufacturers, but overall activity will likely remain below normal for some time.
Read the full publication in a PDF version here
After this month, our China View will be published bi-monthly. The next issue of China View will be at early June.
In the same way that the world has looked at China’s experiences to slow the spread of COVID-19, Beijing’s actions to restore normal business activity might be a useful example for other countries later. Unfortunately, this does not offer much consolation for the world economy. Despite a tighter government grip on the economy than most large countries and an emphasis on resuming work, the Chinese economy is still far from normal activity levels a month after the quarantine restrictions were loosened. The road to recovery in China will likely be slow and uneven, as the unprecedented containment measures are expected to hurt business sentiment and consumer confidence both at home and abroad.
Macro: The long road to recovery
The Chinese economy is taking longer than expected to return to the level before the COVID-19 outbreak. The industrial sector is leading the comeback, with large manufacturers reporting close to normal operations. The smaller firms, though, are struggling with staff shortages and a lack of demand. Rising income insecurity as well as persistent concerns about the virus are preventing a strong recovery in consumption and service sector activities. Given the service sector’s dominating share of the economy, we expect the overall pace of recovery to be slower this time than after the financial crisis in 2008.
CNY: PBoC defence
Elevated uncertainty about COVID-19 as well as its impacts on the global economy will likely keep weakening pressure on the yuan against the dollar, as capital is flowing to safe-haven assets. We expect the PBoC to be the last line of defence for the CNY to avoid an uncontrollable sell-off. We note that strict capital controls as well as the exchange rate regime help to create a ceiling for USD/CNY.
Nordea’s forecasts
As a result of the much larger than expected impacts of the lockdown measures to contain COVID-19, we change our GDP growth forecasts considerably. We are calling for the lowest growth rate in decades, at 1.4% for this year, followed by a strong recovery next year to 11.2%. We also revise our USD/CNY forecasts to reflect more weakening pressure on the yuan.
Our COVID-19-reated research can be found here
