Kommentar: Regeringens exit-strategi med at starte med at åbne skolerne op til femte klasse, er den rigtige vej at gå.
De unge er langt mest modstandsdygtige, viser aldersfordelingen på coronadøde i den vestlige verden. Dermed kan man tage hul på at skabe en flokimmunitet, som hen ad vejen dækker det meste af befolkningen.
Men ifølge anerkendt virusforsker (se artikel nedenfor) skal man samtidig med åbning for skolerne, bygge en beskyttelsesmur omkring de ældre og syge, plejehjem, ældreboliger og sygehuse, fordi de ellers ryger med i exit strategien, i form at markant flere døde. Når der er opnået næsten flokimmunitet kan plejehjemmene igen løsne på beskyttelsesforanstaltningerne.
Det nytter altså ikke noget at pleje- og sygepersonale, som har skolebørn med høj risiko for smitte, går på arbejde uden effektive beskyttelsesmidler, ansigtsmasker og værn osv. De kan i flere uger smitte andre, uden at de selv har symptomer.
Uden dette værn om de ældre og de syge vil den danske regerings exit strategi øge dødeligheden blandt de ældre markant, ligesom i sverige, hvor man har ført en langt mindre restriktiv inddæmningstrategi end i Danmark.
Regeringen er tilsynladende opmærksomme på problemet: I stateministerens seneste tale sagde hun:”Og I, der kæmper i frontlinjen – hvad enten det er på ældreområdet, socialområdet eller inde for sundheden – I skal selvfølgelig have det rette udstyr. Det er et problem, at alle ikke kan få det nu. Der arbejdes hårdt på at skaffe flere masker og andre værnemidler, som vi både mangler i Danmark og i mange andre lande.”
Men det er fortsat usikkert om det kommer på plads, og om beskyttelsesforanstaltningerne er tilstrækkeligt effektive.
I Sverige er stort set alle døde over 70 år.
Indtil videre har den lempelige svenske strategi medført en betydeligt højere dødelighed, men altså især blandt ældre:
Artikel fra American Institute for Economic Research:
With all respiratory diseases, the only thing that stops the disease is herd immunity. About 80% of the people need to have had contact with the virus, and the majority of them won’t even have recognized that they were infected, or they had very, very mild symptoms, especially if they are children. So, it’s very important to keep the schools open and kids mingling to spread the virus to get herd immunity as fast as possible, and then the elderly people, who should be separated, and the nursing homes should be closed during that time, can come back and meet their children and grandchildren after about 4 weeks when the virus has been exterminated….
We are experiencing all sorts of counterproductive consequences of not well-thought-through policy….
Let the children spread the virus among themselves, which is a necessity to get herd immunity. That was probably one of the most destructive actions the government has done. We should focus on the elderly and separating them from the population where the virus is circulating. We should not prevent the virus from circulating among school children, which is the fastest way to create herd immunity….
And the final question and answer: “So, is there anything else you want to say about this that—what’s been aggravating you the most? Or what would you like people to know?”
I think people in the United States and maybe other countries as well are more docile than they should be. People should talk with their politicians, question them, ask them to explain, because if people don’t stand up to their rights, their rights will be forgotten.
I’m Knut Wittkowski. I was at the Rockefeller University, I have been an epidemiologist for 35 years, and I have been modeling epidemics for 35 years. It’s a pleasure to have the ability to help people to understand, but it’s a struggle to get heard.