Danske Bank hæfter sig ved, at spædingen mellem USA og Kina blusser op igen. Man kan ikke udelukke, at præsident Trump vil trække sig ud af fase-et aftalen i handelskonflikten, og at han vil lave nye sanktioner mod Kina. Det kan koste ham stemmer hos bønder, der sælger til Kina, men generelt kan en hård linje gavne ham ved valget i efteråret.
Uddrag fra Danske Bank:
Danske Daily – US-China tensions flaring up again
We should also start to look out for any news about US President Trump’s possible sanctions on China. It cannot be ruled out that he would pull out of the phase-one trade deal and start putting tariffs back on China.
He would risk hurting the economy even further as well as jeopardise important farmer votes in key swing states if China pulls the plug on agricultural purchases. On the other hand, he could gain politically from taking a tough stance on China.
Chinese data for industrial production, retail sales and fixed investments in April published overnight were close to expectations. Industrial production rose 3.9% y/y – higher than the 1.5% expected by consensus, retail sales fell 7.5% y/y below the expectations and fixed assets were down 10.3% YTD y/y – about as expected. Overall, the data point to signs of recovery in the Chinese economy.
US initial jobless claims amounted to 3m last week; hence, unemployment in the US continues to rise. Over the past eight weeks it now totals 36.5m. The continued rise in unemployment supports the view that the US economy needs more stimulus, e.g. it could be an extension of the temporary increase in unemployment benefits or another round of direct payments.
