Kursfald i logistikvirksomheder indikerer, at verdenshandelen faldt kraftigt i marts, vurderer Deutsche Bank. Det kan blive det største fald siden finanskrisen i 2008-9. Banken venter først en forbedring i her i maj. Coronakrisen kan føre til store ændringer af verdenshandelen, fordi mange virksomheder vil flytte produktion hjem for at blive mindre afhængig af forsyningskæden. Det gælder især i medicinalsektoren.
Uddrag fra Deutsche Bank:
Global trade faces negative record and
structural shift
Plummeting shares of logistics companies indicate that global goods trade
will contract by a whopping 3.2% mom in March. This would be the largest
monthly contraction since the GFC. Subsequently, our model suggests an
almost flat monthly growth in April and a marginal recovery in May.
Based on DB’s GDP forecast (base scenario), annual global goods trade will
shrink by 13.6% in 2020 and will recover by only 7.5% in 2021. In the COVID19 crisis, global goods trade is set to fall much heavier than during the
financial crisis.
Moreover, while the service exports were a shock absorber during the GFC,
services exports are likely to drop at a similar rate as goods exports this time.
Another difference between the COVID-19 shock and the GFC shock is the
temporal distribution. The GFC was a synchronous economic shock
whereas the COVID-19 crisis spread in “continental waves”. At the
beginning, this helped to manage the crisis. But during the recovery it
increases the risk of repeated disruptions of global supply chains.
The COVID-19 crisis might result in a reorganization of global value chains,
at least in some sectors. For instance, there are requests to repatriate the
provision of medicines and medical devices back to developed markets.
However, a more balanced approach between today’s global value chains
and a complete repatriation could be continental production close to
developed markets.