Riding the Storm Out
Goldman Sachs kommer med en dyster vurdering. Ganske vist vil andet kvartal nok være det værste i krisen, og der kommer en forbedring i resten af året. Men krisens konsekvenser bliver ikke ligeligt fordelt. Der er så megen usikkerhed, at Goldman ikke længere laver forudsigelser med decimaler. Investorerne skal regne med betydelig forandringer af investeringsmulighederne. Nu handler det om at holde ud og ride stormen af.
Stepping aside from economic and investment insight for a moment, our thoughts today are with you, your family, and our communities directly affected by these unprecedented events. Globally, the severe economic and health consequences of COVID-19 will not be equally distributed, but we trust that this moment too shall pass, creating increased awareness of our environment and each other.
At the time of this writing, our baseline economic forecast is for the sudden deceleration in economic activity to be most acute in the second quarter, followed by a resurgence in growth during the second half of 2020 and into 2021. Still, developments are fluid. To be sure, we are not including decimal points in our forecasts at this time.
The remainder of this edition of the Market Know-How will focus on summarizing our macro expectations and providing a framework for riding the storm out.
We emphasize ongoing strategic commitments to:
- Alpha-oriented, bottom-up strategies that can identify disruptions in the competitive landscape. We expect societal and consumer transitions that were underway prior to COVID-19 will be accelerated.
- Income-oriented investing, with a move up-in-quality. Many securities may reflect challenges to market liquidity, not solvency or sustainability, providing excellent entry points to cash flow.
- Diversified return streams that can buffer spikes in episodic volatility. This would include alternative and portfolio hedge investment strategies.
- Being patient and positioned for recovery.
