Merrill betragter teknologi- og sundhedsaktier som langt bedre end finans- og industriaktier. Mange selskaber er blevet hårdt ramt af coronakrisen, og PE-værdien på S&P-500 indekset ligger nu på 22 mod gennemsnitsværdien på 17 over de seneste fem år. Men for højvækstselskaber og selskaber med høj kvalitet er der stadig udsigt til en god indtjening, mener banken.
Is the S&P 500 overvalued?
Certain traditional measures of valuation such as price-to-earnings (PE) look expensive; however, we believe that alternative measures of valuation are more relevant today and that equities may be deserving of higher multiples in the post-coronavirus world.
Corporate earnings and revenues have become severely impaired from the pandemic. This has distorted many valuation measures, including PE multiples, where the denominator has suffered a major shock.
The S&P 500 currently trades around a 22x PE multiple on consensus earnings over the next 12 months, according to FactSet, above the five-year average of 17x. However, as economic recovery gains momentum, we expect earnings to improve and exert downward pressure on multiples. Consensus
expectations for 2021 earnings are $165 per share and are $189 in 2022. This pace of earnings recovery, if achieved, would compress multiples and/or support price gains.
Also supporting valuation is the shifting composition of the U.S. equity market toward higher growth and quality oriented sectors. The Technology, Communications Services and Healthcare sectors now represent nearly 53% of the S&P 500 and have better secular growth prospects and margins, allowing for higher multiples as opposed to sectors such as Financials, Industrials and Energy, which once claimed a higher representation in the index.
Exhibit 2: The Composition of the S&P 500 Has Shifted Toward Higher Margin
Sources: Chief Investment Office; Bloomberg. Data as of July 28, 2020.
