Annonce

Log ud Log ind
Log ud Log ind
Finans

Saxo Bank: Er der risiko for en likviditetskrise?

Hugo Gaarden

mandag 28. september 2020 kl. 11:00

Saxo Bank vurderer, om der er risiko for en likviditetskrise som under finanskrisen, ligesom der var en stramning i september 2019. Men banken hæfter sig ved, at pengepolitikken i USA er ekspansiv og udtrykker en sund styring af pengepoltikken. Derfor er der ingen grund til at frygte en likviditetskrise. Derimod kan valget i USA ende i en forfatningskrise.

Uddrag fra Saxo Bank: 

Imminent liquidity squeeze or just prudent money management ?

Summary:  The recent sell-off in emerging markets combined with higher real rates, stronger dollar and stocks turning red all around the world have been interpreted by many investors as the sign there is not enough liquidity added by the Federal Reserve. We examine in this article whether or not we are about to face a new liquidity squeeze, as it was the case in Q3 2019 for instance, and what could be the implications of higher financial stress in the coming months for investors.

For policymakers and investors, a liquidity squeeze, which is characterized by difficulties to have access to money in the short term, is the worst-case scenario in a period of weak growth prospects and looming economic risks due to the pandemic. It could seriously jeopardize the recovery and cause distortions in the entire financial system.

The last time a major liquidity squeeze has happened in the repo market, in September 2019, the Federal Reserve had to intervene for an unprecedented 10-month period to successfully tame volatile funding costs.

Are we nowadays on the bridge of a similar turmoil? It we look at the repo market, there is no difficulty to access to money in the short-term. Among all the things the Federal Reserve has to worry about, the repo market is clearly, and by large, no longer one of them.

More important is the fact that the overall monetary conditions in the United States are still very expansionist.

As the below chart well represents, the overall monetary conditions in the United States are still largely expansionist, though less than during the 2008 crisis.

Based on that, it would be mistaken to suggest there is a relationship between few isolated events on the high yield market, which is always more complicated to analyze due to the higher risk profile of companies which refinance there, and the access to overall liquidity in the short term. There is therefore certainly a better explanation to the recent fly to safe havens and the rise in real rates.

 

In our view, given current very accommodative overall monetary conditions and the absence of signs of financial stress in the short term borrowing markets (notably the widely watched repo market), we believe the recent events are not consistent with the risk of imminent liquidity squeeze.

It rather reflects prudent money management from asset managers and asset owners putting money on the side or in safe assets to be prepared to face the risks associated with the upcoming U.S. presidential election. Many investors, rightly or not, are worried about the possibility of a contested election in case of irregularities. It could cause an institutional crisis and ultimately end up at the Supreme Court. The risk is real, and could obviously trigger a new market selloff, but we are not in the situation where we are about to face a wholesale carnage due to temporary credit freeze.

At the moment, there is no rational reason to fear a liquidity squeeze.

Få dagens vigtigste
økonominyheder hver dag kl. 12

Bliv opdateret på aktiemarkedets bevægelser, skarpe indsigter
og nyeste tendenser fra Økonomisk Ugebrev – helt gratis.

Jeg giver samtykke til, at I sender mig mails med de seneste historier fra Økonomisk Ugebrev.  Lejlighedsvis må I gerne sende mig gode tilbud og information om events. Samtidig accepterer jeg ØU’s Privatlivspolitik. Du kan til enhver tid afmelde dig med et enkelt klik.

[postviewcount]

Jobannoncer

Financial Controller til HMF Group A/S
Region Midt
SUN-AIR i Billund søger en kreditorbogholder
Region Syddanmark
Finansiel controller med stærk forretningsforståelse
Region Sjælland
Udløber snart
Dansk Sygeplejeråd søger en regnskabskonsulent med digitalt mindset og med erfaring i regnskabsprocessen fra A-Z (barselsvikariat)
Region Hovedstaden

Mere fra ØU Finans

Log ind

Har du ikke allerede en bruger? Opret dig her.

FÅ VORES STORE NYTÅRSUDGAVE AF FORMUE

Her er de 10 bedste aktier i 2022

Tilbuddet udløber om:
dage
timer
min.
sek.

Analyse af og prognoser for Fixed Income (statsrenter og realkreditrenter)

Direkte adgang til opdaterede analyser fra toneangivende finanshuse:

Goldman Sachs

Fidelity

Danske Bank

Morgan Stanley

ABN Amro

Jyske Bank

UBS

SEB

Natixis

Handelsbanken

Merril Lynch 

Direkte adgang til realkreditinstitutternes renteprognoser:

Nykredit

Realkredit Danmark

Nordea

Analyse og prognoser for kort rente, samt for centralbankernes politikker

Links:

RBC

Capital Economics

Yardeni – Central Bank Balance Sheet 

Investing.com: FED Watch Monitor Tool

Nordea

Scotiabank