Finans

Merrill: Metal-aktierne kan få et løft

Råvarer og ikke mindst metal-aktiverne kan få et løft i den kommende tid på grund af den ekstremt lave inflation og coronakrisen, vurderer Merrill. Prisen på råvarer plejer at stige, når der kommer gang i økonomien, og når inflationen stiger. Merrill venter, at metal-priserne i det kommnde år vil stige til trenden fra de seneste år.

Uddrag fra Merrill:

Commodities Benefiting From Reflationary Policy

The swift recovery in commodity prices since April has been one of the early signs of policy success in fighting the effects of the pandemic shutdown, and of a reflation cycle taking hold in the U.S. and global economies, in our view.

Commodities tend to do well as expansions mature and inflation pressures start to grow with declining spare capacity in the economy, but they also tend to rally early in economic expansions.

Thus, their upturn was an early indication of a very brief pandemic-related recession.

With monetary and fiscal policy decisively pursuing above-trend economic growth for the foreseeable future because of large slack in the economy and subdued inflation pressures, the commodity upcycle likely has more room to run.

In his post-September Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting press conference, Fed Chair Powell spelled out an ultra-dovish Fed policy of rock-bottom interest rates at least until the end of 2023, or when the job market is fully healed and inflation rises above 2% for a period of time.

If need be, the central bank is ready to use other tools to maximize its effort,
including expanding asset purchases and lending programs. At the same time, fiscal policy is poised to inject more direct stimulus in the economy.

This is consistent with a sustainable expansion and dollar downtrend, both favorable for commodities and other reflation beneficiaries.

Base metals. With support from the massive government liquidity injections around the world, the unusually brief recession, and dollar roll-over, base metals have not dropped as much this year as during the 2008-2009 recession or the 2014-2016 globalmanufacturing slowdown (Exhibit 1).

They have also been less affected by the recent financial-market instability. Notwithstanding inherent volatility, we expect metals to move up closer to their long-term uptrend over the next year.