De seneste data fra Tyskland viser, at der er sket et stærkt økonomisk opsving i 3. kvartal. Industriproduktioinen steg med 8 pct. i august mod et fald på 16,1 pct. i juni. Hvis produktionen stabiliserer sig i september, vil det give en kvartalsvækst på 9,8 pct. Eksporten kan stige med næsten 20 pct. i 3. kvartal. ABN Amro vurderer, at den samlede økonomi vil stige med 8 pct. i 3. kvartal mod et fald på 10,9 pct. i 2. kvartal. ABN Amro tror dog, at væksten i 4. kvartal vil faldet kraftigt til nul.
Spectacular growth rebound takes shape in Germany
Germany’s monthly economic activity data for July and August have illustrated that a sharp rebound in GDP growth in Q3 is taking shape.
If we look at the 3month-over-3month growth rate (which reflects the monthly moving average growth rate during the quarter) industrial production increased to 8% in August, up from -16.1% in June.
This means that, if production were to stabilise in September, the quarter-on-quarter growth rate would jump to 9.8% in Q3, up from -16.1% in Q2. Similarly, exports expanded by almost 15% 3m-o-3m in August, up from almost -22% in Q2. Stabilisation in September would mean that quarterly growth in exports would accelerate to almost 20% qoq in Q3.
As the rebound in imports has remained more modestly, there will be a large positive contribution from total foreign trade to Q3 GDP growth (of around 9 percentage points assuming stabilisation in September, compared to a 6 percentage points reduction of growth in Q2).
Finally, retail sales and car registrations combined indicate that consumption growth shot up to round 4.5% qoq in Q3, up from -10.9% in Q2.
Taking everything together we have pencilled in GDP growth of around 8% qoq in Q3 up from -9.7% in Q2.
We think that the sharp rebound in growth in Q3 will be followed by a slowdown in growth to close to zero in Q4.
