BNP Paribas har lavet et slags kasseeftersyn på den regning, som USA vil betale under coronakrisen, og det er en kolossal regning for regeringen og Fed med næsten en tredobling af underskuddet på statsbudgettet og en 50 pct. stigning i Feds balance.
Uddrag fra BNP Paribas:
US: COVID-19 Stimulus – Unbounded? [Deep Dive] |
Covid-19 has resulted in an unprecedented US monetary and fiscal response, with a full crisis toolkit deployed in just over a month. The bounds on US fiscal and monetary policy have been removed, and the boundaries between US fiscal and monetary authority blurred. We focus on the short-term costs of this incredible policy stimulus and expect: The fiscal deficit to balloon to $2.5-2.9trn in 2020 (12-15% of US GDP) from just over $1trn in 2019. The risks are skewed to the upside as details evolve, programmes are upsized, and given the possibility of new rounds of stimulus.
The Fed’s balance sheet has increased by 50% since mid-March to $6.6trn. QE4 has seen huge US Treasury (and MBS) purchases increasing assets, with reserves rising to $3trn. Usage of Fed’s newly established facilities has been low, so far.
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