JPMorgan har standset nedjusteringen af aktierne for i år, selv om coronakrisen langt fra et overstået. Det er ovenikøbet lavet enkelte opjusteringer. For 2021 venter banken et niveau på linje med vurderingen i 2019, dvs. før krisen. Men på langt sigt venter banken et aktieniveau på 10 pct. under vurderingen før krisen. Banken venter et meget kraftigt dyk i energisektoren og finanssektoren, mens high-tech og enkelte andre sektorer, der har klaret sig godt i krisen, ventes at klare sig fint fremover.
Taking stock
The struggle against the COVID-19 virus is far from over, but investors are reassured by the beginnings of a rebound in economic activity, supported by exceptionally low interest rates.
Markets have continued to rally as profit forecasts have stabilized. After slashing 30% from our expectations for global profits for this year, our research team has stopped cutting near-term profit forecasts and has even made a few upgrades of late.
Overall, our 2021 forecasts fall roughly in line with the 2019 pre-pandemic numbers, but our long-term “normalized” forecast (a key element of our investment process) comes in around 10% below pre-crisis levels.
We see some regional nuances to the recovery, but differences among industries remain far more significant and indeed extreme.
Energy stands out as the industry with the biggest decline in expectations; our long-term numbers are more than 40% lower than in January, and near-term profitability has essentially disappeared. Energy companies face enormous challenges, which have hardly escaped the market’s attention (the sector has delivered the worst returns over all the time periods we reviewed).
The near-term profitability of the financial sector has also fallen sharply, accounting for almost a quarter of all of our cuts for this year across the globe.
Meanwhile, technology companies, drug companies and many consumer staples businesses are sailing through the year with little or no impact from the violent cyclical downturn, and with long-term structural drivers of profitability as powerful as ever.
