Citi øjner en periode, som banken kalder en Ny Økonomisk Cyklus, der kan fjerne lang tids usikkerhed. Nye coronavacciner og den nye Biden-regering med ro omkring internationale handelsaftaler og med en større satsning på grøn energi vil styrke “ude-erhvervene” på bekostning af krisens “hjemme-erhverv”. Parmavirksomheder og sundhedssektoren vil få et løft.
Could Uncertainties Start to Abate?
- Perhaps the greater clarity post-election is for global trade. US foreign policy could enter a more predictable phase without escalating tariff threats.
- Citi analysts see a declining US dollar and rising emerging markets as a likely outcome. In contrast, the fate of regulation for large technology firms remains wide open given a potentially split Congress.
- Looking ahead, Citi analysts believe that the arrival of an effective vaccine is likely to become the more important news than the result of the US Presidential race.
- The trifecta of knowing who the President will be, that the end of the pandemic is at hand and that sufficient stimulus is available to allow for a recovery in the US and the West, is likely to mark the start of the New Economic Cycle.
- While parts of the world economy already saw a sharp recovery from the record drop of the initial COVID-19 shock, a much broader, self-reinforcing period of economic growth could follow COVID-19’s departure.
- A rotation from “stay at home” to “leave home” equities could begin, and equities are favored over bonds given sustained low interest rates in coming years.
- Certain trends could also accelerate post COVID-19 in a New Economic Cycle. A Biden administration could add further weight to a push for green energy solutions, joining even the EU or China in this effort.
- With a divided government and COVID-19 to fight, US pharmaceuticals and broader healthcare equities could also see renewed confidence.
