• The US commitment shaves 0,1°C off global warming by 2100, representing 20% of the difference between a 1.5°C and a 2 °C warming world.
• Biden’s win is good news for global carbon emissions targets, bringing the Paris Agreement within reach by tipping the global balance such that more than 2/3rds of the world economy would have net-zero GHG emissions targets by 2050.
• The run-off election for 2 senate seats from Georgia will have significant bearing on Biden’s ability to implement his plans. With the next 10 years pivotal to remain within a 1.5°C trajectory, the upcoming senate election represents an additional uphill in the road to Paris.

During the first week of November more than 75 million American’s voted for Joe Biden, the Democrat candidate for president. With that, they also voted  to re-join the Paris Climate Agreement, reinstate emissions rules, and to invest USD 2 trillion to confront the “grave threat” of climate change.

The other 70 million votes went to Trump (and against the Paris agreement). The political polarization in the US is relevant to climate discussions, since the implications for global climate change with a Biden presidency is a 180 degree turn to address the issue from the current US administration.

The US Federal Reserve also called out climate change risk for the first time in its biannual financial stability report shortly after the election results were in. Biden’s climate plan outlines strategies to achieve 100% clean electricity by 2035 and net-zero emissions by 2050.

Biden’s promise

The national geographic compiled a list of Biden’s promises and plans for the environment. In addition to re-joining the Paris agreement and investing USD 2 trillion toward climate mitigation and adaptation Biden has made specific mention to:

• Achieve 100% clean electricity by 2035 and net-zero emissions by 2050
• Support small-scale nuclear reactors
• And acknowledged that renewable energy has eliminated US demand for new coal plants
• Stop the Keystone XL fossil fuel pipeline project
• Consider ending fossil fuel subsidies
• Ban offshore drilling and new fracking permits on federal lands
• Support rapid innovations on renewable energy markets and use it as a major jobs creator, seeking to invest USD 400 billion over 10 years in clean energy and climate research using tax policy and other mechanisms to incentivise toward rapid deployment.
• Set new energy efficiency standards as part of the upgrade of 4 million buildings
• Expand rail services and to shrink rail travel times
• Introduce strict fuel-efficiency standards in an attempt to make purchases of all new cars and light trucks electric

and on global front to:

• Host a global climate summit during his first 100 days in office
• Persuade other countries to set more ambitious and enforceable targets for reducing greenhouse gas emissions, and use tariffs and trade to ensure goods imported from overseas bear the full cost of climate pollution.

In addition to climate specific commitments he plans to address plastic pollution, land and water conservation and the disproportionate impact of pollution on low-income communities.

The US and climate broader perspective

Historically the US has been the largest CO2 emitter, and on annual basis currently the second largest emitter following China. The USA has cumulatively emitted 420 Gigaton CO2 from 1850 to 2015. This implies around 28% of the current 1 degree global temperature forcing is attributable to the USA[1]. The EU follows in a close second with 25%.

Source: The Lancet Global Health; EDGAR – Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research; ABN AMRO group economics

What does Biden’s promise imply for global emissions and temperature trajectory?

With the USA as one of the largest global emitters, and the only of the five largest emitters to have left the Paris climate Agreement, Biden’s promise has implication for the global climate trajectory on three levels.

1. As direct emitter reducing its own emissions. Biden’s promise moves toward filling the vacancy for the US around responsibility for accumulated emissions and reduction of its current emissions.
2. As a team player, following commitments from the EU, China and most recently Japan, the US commitment also sets the global economy further on course to reaching the Paris climate goal, and quoting Biden – “creates a fist”.
3. As influential trading partner to emerging economies – for example India, with high growth ambitions and associated emissions.

Conclusion: Biden’s promise is GREAT news to limit climate change

Biden’s promise puts the Paris Agreement 1.5°C increase on the table again. This is achieved from individual reductions, and more powerfully by re-joining global mitigation efforts as missing party to form a unified response from the three largest emitters – China, the US and the EU – and from the leading role as trading partner to emerging economies.

Coupled with the 2020 communicated targets from China, the EU, Japan and South Korea the US tips the scale such that more than 50% of global GHG emissions and 2/3rds of the world economy would have net-zero GHG emissions targets by 2050.

The possibility of two additional seats in the US Senate to the Democrats would amount to more decisive policy action toward implementation in the crucial 10 years toward 2030.