JPMorgan stiller et barsk spørgsmål: Kan vækstaktierne fastholde det ekstremt høje niveau med en P/E på 38, eller er der risiko for et dramatisk kursfald som i 2000-1? Vækstaktierne, og især high-tech, klarede sig bedst under coronakrisen, men nu er der mere fokus på valueaktier og de traditionelle sektorer. Sidst, da aktier havde en price/earning på omkring 40, var i en priode omkring 2000, og så faldt niveauet brat og lå på 20-25 indtil slutningen af 2019.
Taking stock
The premium for owning the best growth companies is as high as ever, while the discounts applied to out-of-favor value stocks remain stubbornly wide. On any metric we can find, this has been a historically challenging year for value stocks.
Meanwhile, the median forward P/E of the fastest-growing quintile of companies globally now is 38x, a level last seen in early 2000 (EXHIBIT 1).
The fastest-growing companies then and now were growing at similar rates, but they operated in very different interest rate environments. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yields around 80 basis points (bps) today vs. 6%-plus at the turn of the century. For high multiple stocks with a long duration, that really matters.
Are investors mesmerized by the growth narrative heading for a similar fate as in 2000–01, when the Nasdaq index lost 80%? Or are the structural forces at play powerful enough to support growth stock performance for years to come? It’s a subject of spirited debate.
The premium for owning the best growth companies is as high as ever.
EXHIBIT 1: FORWARD PRICE-TO-EARNINGS RATIOS BY FACTOR
Source: Factset, IBES, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Chart shows the median forward price-to-earnings ratio of the top quintile for each factor. The price-to-earnings multiples are equal weighted and based on next 12 month IBES earnings per share estimates. The Value factor is based on earnings and free cash flow yields; the Quality factor is based on profitability, capital discipline and earnings quality; the Growth factor is based on forecasted earnings growth on a next 12 month and FY3/FY2 basis using IBES consensus estimates; the Risk factor is based on volatility and beta and the Market factor is the median P/E of the investible universe. The overall universe is the Behavioral Finance Global All-Cap investible universe of developed market and emerging market equities, and consists of approximately 4,000 companies. Data is shown from Dec. 31, 1994-Sept. 30,2020. The dotted line is the overall market median since 1994. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of current and future results. Data as of September 30, 2020.
