Danske Bank har udsendt sin nyeste Big Picture-publikation: Det er bankens seneste bud på tilstanden i global økonomi. Selvom covid-19-restriktionerne formentlig fortsætter frem til begyndelsen af foråret, hvilket vil skabe modvind for global økonomi i 4. kvartal 2020 og 1. kvartal 2021, så vil udrulningen af en covid-19-vaccine i de kommende kvartaler bane vej for et solidt opsving i global økonomi fra 2. kvartal og frem og dermed reducere hale-risikoen for den globale økonomi – læs mere i The Big Picture – Darkest before dawn.
Darkest before dawn
• Continuing high levels of COVID-19 cases mean that restrictions will likely remain through
the early spring.
• After a strong recovery, the global economy is likely to see a soft patch in Q4 20 and Q1 21 due
to the new restrictions and delays in new fiscal stimulus in the US.
• However, as a vaccine is distributed widely in H1 2021, we see brightening prospects for
the global economy taking hold in Q2 and strengthening further in Q3 as pent-up demand is
released.
• Overall, we look for a smaller effect from fiscal and monetary stimulus in 2021 than in 2020.
• The balance of risks to our global scenario has shifted to the upside due to the positive vaccine
outlook, reducing at the same time negative tail-risks for the global economy.
