ABG Sundal Collier har mod betaling udarbejdet denne analyse af North Media:
Commercial leaflets are common in Denmark
Today we hosted a management conference call focusing on FK
Distribution (90% of group revenue). FK Distribution packs and delivers
~1.8m commercial leaflet bundles every week. Volumes have declined by
~10-13% (10Y avg. -8%) in 2020, and with price increases FK Distribution
guides for a y-o-y revenue decline of -1.7% to -3.3%, but an EBIT (bsi.)
increase of 53%-63%. The significant increase in EBIT is driven by output
optimisation and a distribution transition (from two to one weekly
deliveries). 86% of recipients now read the leaflets (avg. 2.5 minutes) and
64% go shopping after reading them – as a result ROI has increased to
2.2x for 2017-19 (1.8x for 2016-18) whereas other comparable mass
media channels have lost their effect (e.g. reduction of flow TV).
On 30 June, Danish competition authorities ruled that FK Distribution had
‘misused its dominating position’ and digital and physical distribution
contracts were separated. The case is appealed. Today 30% of Danish
households opt-out for receiving commercial leaflet bundles and 20% receive
tailored bundles. There have been discussions of changing the default, but
FK Distribution has (with multiple organisations), organised a defense to
explain the societal benefits associated with their offering.
Generalt om Commissioned Research: Bemærk, at man bør se bort fra eventuelle kursestimater i såkaldt commissioned research, og den underliggende analyse skal også tolkes med forsigtighed, da negative aspekter ikke nødvendigvis fremhæves.
