Aktiemarkederne har i november indhentet tabet fra coronakrisen, og det er en langt hurtigere genopretning end efter tidligere kriser. Desuden er der sket en stærk vækst i køb og fusioner i andet halvår (M&A). Endelig er der tegn på en bedre indtjening i virksomhederne, fordi genopretningen ventes at blive kraftigere end ventet i 2021. Det lover godt for aktiemarkederne i 2021, mener Merrill.
Uddrag fra Merrill:
Market and M&A Rebound the Fastest in Decades
Last month the Dow Jones Industrial Average joined other U.S. equity indexes in fully
regaining losses from the coronavirus-induced bear market.
November 16 marked 193 trading days since the Dow’s peak in February, the fastest recovery from a bear market (price decline of -20%) since 1991. (The S&P 500 took just 126 trading days to recover,
the fastest on record.) Price returns in November for the Dow of +12% were the highest
in 33 years.
Cyclical sectors led the strong market rally last month, with Energy shares up 27%,
Financial shares up 17%, and Industrials up 16%.
Vaccine optimism and reduced election uncertainty have improved both market and business sentiment, despite rising coronavirus cases and higher hospitalization rates. Indeed the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) Small Business Optimism Index has rebounded to near pre-crisis levels.
Overseas, a similar dynamic has unfolded, with Europe’s Stoxx 600 Index and Japan’s
Nikkei Index leading global equity performance in the past month. These indexes tend to
be more leveraged to global growth and to sectors more sensitive to the business cycle.
Improved business confidence is also behind one of the quickest M&A recoveries in
decades.
As shown in Exhibit 5, global M&A volumes declined during April and May but
moved sharply higher during the second half of the year. In contrast, during past
recessions, M&A activity has taken years to return to pre-crisis levels.
Improving firm profits due to a faster-than-expected economic recovery should continue
to support equities into 2021, and we would consider any pullbacks as buying
opportunities. An improvement in dividend trends could also provide support for the
markets.
