Annonce

Log ud Log ind
Log ud Log ind
Finans

Fremgang i den amerikanske industriproduktion

Hugo Gaarden

onsdag 16. december 2020 kl. 12:10

Trods den stærkt voksende coronakrise i USA, er der fremgang i industriproduktionen. Den steg i november med 0,4 pct. i forhold til oktober. Produktionen kan dog blive ramt negativt i de kommende måneder, hvorimod der atter er udsigt til fremgang senere i 2021, vurderer ING, der venter, at industriproduktionen i 3. kvartal 2021 vil komme tilbage på niveauet fra før coronaen.

Uddrag fra ING:

US manufacturing shows its resilience

 

Despite near-term Covid-19 challenges, the 2021 manufacturing outlook is bright. The post-vaccine global rebound should be further boosted by new corporate investment, major European and US fiscal stimulus focusing on infrastructure and energy and the competitiveness boosting effects of a weaker dollar.

Manufacturing continues to outperform

November US industrial production rose 0.4% month-on month with manufacturing output rising 0.8% versus the respective 0.3% and 0.4% consensus forecasts.

A very good performance given hours worked in the manufacturing sector actually fell in November. Utilities output declined 4.3% reflecting the warmer than usual weather while mining rebounded by 2.3%MoM.

Breakdown of industrial output (levels: December 2007 = 100)

Macrobond, ING
Macrobond, ING

Near-term challenges, but 2021 is looking good

Covid-19 containment measures are likely to exert a heavy economic toll over the next few months and the manufacturing sector won’t be immune, but it is going to be far less directly impacted than consumer services in big cities.

The stop-start-stop-start nature of restrictions around the world means demand is choppy and uneven with uncertainty undermining confidence. This is likely to keep business relatively cautious with hiring and investment. Moreover, we need to remember that manufacturing output is still 3.7 percentage points below pre-pandemic levels while total industrial production is 4.9 percentage points lower.

Manufacturing surveys point to ongoing recovery

Macrobond, ING
Macrobond, ING

The prospects for US industrial production in 2021 look good

As vaccination programs get underway, we can start to look forward to a full re-opening of the global economy that can boost confidence and spending. The dollar’s weakening trend, which we suspect will continue through 2021, will boost US manufacturers’ international competitiveness at a time when trade is picking up too.

We believe the manufacturing sector will have fully rebounded to pre-pandemic output levels by the end of 3Q21

Corporate investment plans have largely been put on hold through the pandemic and once the all-clear has been sounded we could see a boom for construction and capital equipment demand. Major government fiscal stimulus plans and a growing focus on infrastructure and energy investment plans in both the US and Europe also present opportunities for US manufacturers.

Consequently, we believe the manufacturing sector will have fully rebounded to pre-pandemic output levels by the end of 3Q21.

Få dagens vigtigste
økonominyheder hver dag kl. 12

Bliv opdateret på aktiemarkedets bevægelser, skarpe indsigter
og nyeste tendenser fra Økonomisk Ugebrev – helt gratis.

Jeg giver samtykke til, at I sender mig mails med de seneste historier fra Økonomisk Ugebrev.  Lejlighedsvis må I gerne sende mig gode tilbud og information om events. Samtidig accepterer jeg ØU’s Privatlivspolitik. Du kan til enhver tid afmelde dig med et enkelt klik.

[postviewcount]

Jobannoncer

Finansiel controller med stærk forretningsforståelse
Region Sjælland

Mere fra ØU Finans

Log ind

Har du ikke allerede en bruger? Opret dig her.

FÅ VORES STORE NYTÅRSUDGAVE AF FORMUE

Her er de 10 bedste aktier i 2022

Tilbuddet udløber om:
dage
timer
min.
sek.

Analyse af og prognoser for Fixed Income (statsrenter og realkreditrenter)

Direkte adgang til opdaterede analyser fra toneangivende finanshuse:

Goldman Sachs

Fidelity

Danske Bank

Morgan Stanley

ABN Amro

Jyske Bank

UBS

SEB

Natixis

Handelsbanken

Merril Lynch 

Direkte adgang til realkreditinstitutternes renteprognoser:

Nykredit

Realkredit Danmark

Nordea

Analyse og prognoser for kort rente, samt for centralbankernes politikker

Links:

RBC

Capital Economics

Yardeni – Central Bank Balance Sheet 

Investing.com: FED Watch Monitor Tool

Nordea

Scotiabank