Citi mener, at en sejrrig kamp mod coronaen bliver den mest afgørende faktor for investorernes afkast i år og næste år, men banken mener, at det bliver Asien, der vil klare sig bedst. Det skyldes især Kina, som ifølge Citi får en direkte virkning på verdensøkonomiens sundhed. En stærkt stigende eksport vil også føre til en stor import fra især de regionale markeder i Asien. Landene i Sydøstasien vil få stor gavn af en genopblussen af turismen, når coronaen er bekæmpet.
Global Political Developments and Asia’s Prospects
COVID-19’s eventual defeat could remain the major factor that drives investment returns in 2021-2022.
Citi analysts do not see the increasing prevalence of the new mutation as a major impediment to economic recovery in 2021.
As China’s economy recovers, broader Asia could benefit
Citi analysts remain overweight global equities, REITs and underweight global fixed income. Uninterrupted gains are not expected in markets, however, Citi analysts see a long-term outperformance in Asia in particular.
As the world’s second largest economy, China’s success is likely to directly impact the overall health of the global economy.
China’s exports have jumped 21% in November 2020 from a year ago. The country’s domestic economy also continues to recover, which could be meaningful to lift demand for exporters in the region. China’s imports are also likely to follow exports and boost regional growth.
The improving prospects of vaccine rollout in Asia may also give rise to economies with most dependence on tourism and service industries in 2021, which have been laggards in 2020. This points mainly to Southeast Asia, which is likely to drive regional outperformance in 2021.
