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Finans

Aktierne steg efter Trump-tilhængeres oprør, fordi det svækker Trump

Hugo Gaarden

torsdag 07. januar 2021 kl. 9:05

Det uhørte oprør i Washington, hvor bøller stormede Capitol Hill på præsident Trumps vegne, fik aktierne i Asien til at stige, fordi investorer betragtede oprøret som udtryk for Trumps endelige nederlag. Nu venter mange investorer stærke finanspakker, der under Joe Biden kan hjælpe økonomien i gang. Der er dog også investorer, som mener, at aktierne befinder sig i en boble, og at flere stimuli ikke hjælper.

Uddrag fra Fidelity/Reuters:

Investors react after Trump supporters storm Capitol, Dems sweep Senate

Asian stocks and U.S. Treasury yields rose on Thursday, while the dollar wallowed near an almost three-year low after supporters of President Donald Trump stormed the U.S. Capitol and Democrats won control of the U.S. Senate after runoff races in Georgia.

Following are investor comments after a tumultuous day in U.S. politics:

MICHAEL KELLY, HEAD OF MULTI ASSETS, PINEBRIDGE INVESTMENTS, NEW YORK

“This event is likely to weaken Trump’s grip on his supporters, and his ability to remain a force while out of office. As senators return this evening to finish their attempt to invalidate November’s election results, we now expect to see fewer senators stand up and walk the plank on the president’s behalf.”

“Markets are now looking for a firmer fiscal thrust; more COVID-related income support, a greater likelihood of a larger infrastructure bill later in the year, and a potential federalization of the State based unemployment insurance. All this pushing the spending pedal and pressuring up the U.S. yield curve, leading towards a rotation towards small, value-oriented stocks and away from NASDAQ… also pushing the Federal Reserve to take a stand on whether and to what degree they will take actions to hold back the yield curve.”

MATHAN SOMASUNDARAM, HEAD OF RESEARCH FIRM DEEP DATA ANALYTICS, SYDNEY

“It’s basically a reflation trade. Anything that benefits from rising prices is going to do well. The market had a one-way bet that the Republicans were going to win both seats in the Georgia runoff…but as we found out that didn’t happen, and that changes a lot.”

 

AKIRA TAKEI, GLOBAL FIXED INCOME FUND MANAGER, ASSET MANAGEMENT ONE, TOKYO

“The rise in yields and stocks can be explained by the Blue Wave and expectations that Biden’s win will lead to massive fiscal stimulus, but I think fiscal stimulus is an old story. The events in Washington show that the United States is divided and we have to question whether the people will be united once again. It looks like maybe not. This is bad for equities and the dollar. The equities rally is already over-extended and looks like a bubble. I can’t see Treasury yields rising much further from here. It looks like a good level to buy Treasuries.”

 

JASON TEH, CHIEF INVESTMENT OFFICER, VERTIUM ASSET MANAGEMENT, SYDNEY

“Commodities are up and banks are up. The catalyst for that is really the Democrat win of the Senate, and in fact you can see it in the intra-market movements. Tech came off and anything considered value – or really ‘old-economy’ stocks – moved up.”

“Biden now has a greater pathway to approve his laws. There’s only one way a riot can de-rail the stock market and that’s if it spills over into the economy. If a riot results in a lockdown, like what you would expect with a COVID lockdown, then you could potentially see stock market ramifications – but these feel more like skirmishes rather than a wide lockdown.”

 

MASAFUMI YAMAMOTO, CHIEF CURRENCY STRATEGIST, MIZUHO SECURITIES, TOKYO

“The market is optimistic that Biden’s victory will not be overturned. Realisation of the Democratic sweep will be positive for the U.S. economy, U.S. stocks, and the dollar. Higher Treasury yields should benefit the dollar against the euro and the yen, because the dollar has underpriced the potential for U.S economic recovery under Biden. However, the dollar will remain weaker against commodity currencies like the Aussie and emerging market currencies. Markets are trying to position for a U.S. economic recovery. This is easy to do in Treasuries and stocks.”

 

TIM CHUBB, CHIEF INVESTMENT OFFICER, GIRARD, WEST CHESTER, PENNSYLVANIA

“What give us a little bit of a pause is that the economy is still very fragile and I think it’s unlikely that Democrats are going to have as easy of a time as markets are trying to predict in passing some of these policies. Especially when it comes to tax reform, I think the window is relatively small. It’s going to be difficult to achieve that level of tax reform and some of these restrictive policies as cooler heads prevail and the Democratic process works itself out.”

“What market is really (keen on) is more stimulus.”

GUY LEBAS, CHIEF FIXED INCOME STRATEGIST, JANNEY CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, PHILADELPHIA

“The Georgia senatorial elections tipped in favor of the two Democratic candidates, which gives Democrats, with Vice President Harris’ vote, a narrow majority in the Senate and that increases the odds of greater fiscal stimulus and a proposed infrastructure spending package.”

“With those programs two things happen. One, there’s a chance that greater fiscal spending generates inflation. Two, there’s a high probability of greater long-duration Treasury supply. The usual supply-demand dynamics in the market mean that greater supply will push yields a little bit higher.”

 

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