Danske Bank: DFDS – strong finish to 2020

DFDS (MW): Last night DFDS raised the 2020 EBITDA guidance to DKK2.73bn – which compares to the previous guidance range of DKK2.5-2.7bn. The solid finish to the year was supported by UK stockbuilding ahead of Brexit. The Q4 report is scheduled for release on 10 February 2021. Based on the EBITDA level for 2020 we expect DFDS to end 2020 with net debt to EBITDA of 4.2-4.4x which – taking the Covid-19 into account – is solid. DFDS has a strong liquidity position (total liquidity of DKK4.2bn end-Q3 20) and no relevant debt covenants. However, the strong position is already reflected in valuation of the bonds in our view and hence we do not expect any significant spread impact on the back of the strong finish to 2020. We maintain our MW on DFDS.