Den svenske økonomi er på vej mod normalisering, konstaterer Nordea. Økonomien udvikler sig bedre end ventet. Nordea tror ikke, der kommer minusvækst i 4. kvartal eller i 1. kvartal. Forbruget er tilbage på niveauet fra før coronakrisen, og tilliden i industrien og eksportsektoren vokser.
Swedish Tendency Survey: Sentiment normalising
The Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) rose in January to 100, which is further evidence that the economy is resilient.
- The consumer confidence rose to 93.1, the highest reading since before the crisis.
- Confidence in manufacturing industry rose too, reflecting the healthy demand for goods globally.
- Confidence in the service sector as well as for retailer improved, while it softened a bit in the construction sector.
- Employment plans edged up and are at healthy levels, indicating that the situation on the labour market will improve going forward. Labour shortage rose somewhat, albeit from a low level.
- Retailers price plans declined somewhat, while households’ inflation were little changed and remained at rather high levels. Companies’ inflation expectations rose from a low level.
- All in all, the survey is better than expected. The survey suggest that companies and households are seeing through the current second wave of Covid-19, supporting our view that GDP will not decline neither in Q4 nor in Q1. The economy and the labour market are much stronger than the Riksbank’s forecast.
Details:
NIER, December Tendency Survey
Overall economy (ESI): 100.0 (prev. 95.9)
Total business sector: 96.0 (prev. 92.7)
Consumer confidence (CCI): 93.1 (prev. 92.0)
Manufacturing industry (MCI): 113.3 (107.6)
Private services sector: 89.8 (86.2)
