ABN Amro betragter den amerikanske centralbank som så due-agtig, som den kan blive efter det seneste Fed-møde. ABN Amro regner med, at renterne forbliver på det nuværende lave niveau indtil slutningen af 2023 – mindst. Fed-chefen Powell er stadig bekymret for økonomien, men det bemærkelsesværdige er, at han mener, at nedturen mere end før er koncentreret om de sektorer, der er direkte ramt af coronaen, f.eks. hotel- og restaurant-branchen. Det indikerer en vis moderation af krisen. Han frygter ikke inflation, men ser derimod gerne, at inflationen stiger gradvist til omkring 2 pct.
Fed Watch – As dovish as can be
Fed View: Emphasis still on downside risks –
The FOMC kept policy on hold yesterday, and made minimal changes to its policy statement – in line with our expectations.
The most notable change to the statement was a downgrade to the near-term assessment of the recovery, which is now described to have ‘moderated’, rather than ‘continued’.
This essentially reflects the recent weak payrolls data for December, although in the press conference Chair Powell later acknowledged that the weakness in the economy is now much more concentrated in the sectors directly affected by the pandemic – namely hospitality.
As expected, Powell batted away questions around tapering and exit strategies, emphasizing that the Fed is at present still very much focused on downside risks to the outlook, and promising to flag any shifts well in advance.
He also sought to assuage fears that higher fiscal spending might prove inflationary, pointing to the powerful (and global) disinflationary forces at work, and repeating that the Fed would anyway ‘welcome slightly higher inflation’ (consistent with its new policy framework, which was officially reaffirmed today, as is customary at the January FOMC meeting).
In any case, Powell is very much of the view that inflation is a slow-moving phenomenon, and that the Fed would be ‘patient’ and ‘not react’ to any temporary upward inflationary pressure (something we do expect later in the year).
All told, there were few surprises from today’s meeting. We continue to expect asset purchases to be maintained at the current pace at least until the end of this year, and interest rates to remain at current levels at least until late 2023.
