Morgan Stanley har identificeret 7 områder, der kan skabe kursstigninger i 2021. Det er områder, der illustrerer, at der i år bliver klare forskelle på vindere og tabere. Det er Alpha-dyrene, Morgan Stanley satser på, og banken gør opmærksom på, at den går imod en generel opfattelse af, hvor væksten vil ligge. Vi bringer i de kommende dage et kort koncentrat af hver af de syv Alpha-dyr, f.eks. om Asien, banker, fødevaresektoren, online-annoncering. Det første koncentrat handler om Asien, som ifølge Morgan Stanley bliver – eller allerede er – som pigen Guldlok i eventyret.
7 Ideas That Could Add Alpha in 2021
From online ad growth to precision agriculture, seven themes could shape industries and drive asset prices this year. Here’s how—and why—our views on each diverge from the market consensus.
Is Asia entering a goldilocks era? Is the growth in online advertising sustainable? Should investors be bullish on banking?
In a new edition of its annual “Big Debates” series, Morgan Stanley Research has identified dozens of key global equities debates that are likely to be settled (or significantly advanced) this year. They also happen to be areas where the firm’s analysts, economists and strategists take a view counter to the current market consensus.
Following the extraordinary events of 2020, this year’s roster of Big Debates—which cover nearly one hundred topics globally—represents a pivotal moment. They reflect not only the many profound and potentially long-lasting implications of the COVID-19 pandemic and recovery, but also the significant gap between winners and losers, as well as the related opportunities and risks.
Here is the first of seven Big Debates for 2021:
1. Is Asia Entering a Goldilocks Era?
Investors have been wondering about the durability and pace of the growth recovery in Asia. Key concerns center around whether the lack of policy space could constrain the recovery and whether COVID-19 would have a longer lasting impact on growth amid virus mutations and vaccine rollouts.
Morgan Stanley remains bullish. Last fall, the firm’s economists suggested that investors should get ready for a Goldilocks phase in Asia, ex-Japan in 2021. “This Goldilocks phase would feature a combination of accelerating and above-trend growth, rising but still benign inflation and ‘big easy’ policies,” says Deyi Tan, Asia Regional Economist.
Last year, North Asia outperformed in terms of growth. This year, Tan thinks the growth divergence will give way to growth convergence and laggards will catch up. Morgan Stanley’s growth expectations are significantly above consensus for Asia and India with Indonesia and the Philippines likely better positioned in this Goldilocks environment.
Still, the recent rise in U.S. and China rates have sparked concerns of a “Taper Tantrum 2.0”—in which markets would react badly to an outlook for rising rates, as they did in 2013. However, Tan believes this would not jeopardize the Goldilocks view as the rise in rates are likely to be gradual and domestic macrostability conditions in Asia are also more benign than 2013.
