Vi bringer de sidste to af Morgan Stanleys 7 ideer til nye investeringsmuligheder – 7 ideer, hvor Morgan Stanley går imod den konventionelle opfattelse. Kina har mere online-handel end andre, og coronakrisen viste et stærkt opsving i online-handelen overalt. Men det overraskende er, at online-handel med friske grønsager har fået et opsving. Det kan fortsætte. Desuden er der blevet mere opmærksomhed om vacciner. Der kan blive behov for opfølgende vaccinationer, og det kan skabe et nyt marked i de kommende år, ligesom test og diagnoser kan få et opsving.
6. Will Fresh Groceries Drive E-commerce Demand in China?
E-commerce is booming in China and, unsurprisingly, click-and-buy grocery shopping has surged in popularity during the COVID era. However, according to the consensus view, digital fresh grocery sales in China will subside as businesses fully reopen.
Morgan Stanley’s analysis finds that the convenience of online grocery shopping could stick—and that the current low penetration rate provides plenty of room for further growth, particularly as leading e-commerce platforms expand into this category.
7. Are Vaccines and Diagnostics a Sustainable Source of Revenue?
Throughout much of 2020, investors closely followed the development of various COVID-19 vaccines, to understand both the timeline for reopening and the investment landscape.
Today, Morgan Stanley strategists think that the pandemic could be under control by late summer and early fall of this year; but whether vaccines as a product category can be a sustained source of revenue for biopharma is less clear.
Much of the debate hinges on the need for boosters—additional shots of vaccine to enhance protection against COVID-19. “Valuations suggest that the market believes that there is a reasonable booster market,” says analyst Matthew Harrison, noting that the potential size and scope of that booster market is wide-ranging, while longer-term sales dynamics are murky.
The outlook for medtech, specifically technology used for COVID-19 testing, may be clearer—and is the topic of its own debate within European coverage. Here, Morgan Stanley forecasts that sustained demand for testing could improve margins for the two companies it covers. “Near-term demand outstrips supply, and many diagnostic companies are in backlog,” says analyst Alex Gibson. “A vaccine rollout could slow the need for testing toward the end of 2021, but we are yet to reach peak test output.”
