De kinesiske forbrugerpriser faldt med 0,3 pct. i januar forud for det kinesiske nytår. Det kom efter en svag stigning i forbrugerpriserne i december på 0,2 pct. I januar steg fødevarepriserne, mens alle andre priser faldt. Økonomer venter dog, at priserne stiger i de kommende måneder, og at inflationen bliver på 3 pct. for første halvår. Det ses også af, at producentpriserne, dvs. priserne på virksomhedernes indkøb, steg i januar med 0,3 pct.
Uddrag fra Fidelity/Dow Jones:
China Consumer Prices Fall Ahead of Lunar New Year Holiday
China’s consumer prices slipped into deflationary territory last month in year-over-year terms, while the country’s factory-gate prices began to reflate after 11 straight months of decline.
China’s consumer-price index fell 0.3% in January from a year earlier, roughly in line with the expectations of economists polled by The Wall Street Journal. By comparison, consumer prices rose 0.2% year-over-year in December.
The soft inflation figure was distorted by the timing of the Lunar New Year holiday, which came in January last year and falls in February this year. Consumer spending on food, drinks, entertainment and services typically jump during the holiday, temporarily driving up consumer prices.
Food prices rose 1.6% in January from a year earlier, while nonfood prices declined 0.8%. Prices for services such as airline tickets and tourist sites surged in January last year–just before awareness of the Covid-19 outbreak put an abrupt halt to travel. This year, Chinese government officials have encouraged citizens to cancel travel plans amid a flare-up in coronavirus cases, which has dragged down services prices, statistics bureau officials said.
Economists said the current bout of deflation will likely prove short-lived as consumers begin to spend during the holiday, which starts this week. Mr. Zhang, the UBS economist, expects inflation to pick up in February and March before reaching roughly 3% in the second half of the year.
Such an increase isn’t likely enough to prompt any alarm from Chinese central bankers, who are expected to take steps to tamp down leverage this year in a bid to resume a pre-pandemic campaign against financial risk, he said.
Additionally, China said on Wednesday that it tweaked its statistics in composing the headline CPI by adding services like food delivery and ride hailing, as well as consumer goods like electric vehicles, to reflect changing consumer spending patterns. Both the statistics bureau and economists say the changes had little effect on January’s price figures.
China’s producer-price index returned to inflation at the start of the year by rising 0.3% in January from a year earlier, compared with a 0.4% fall year-over-year in December.
Chinese producer prices began falling a year ago as the coronavirus pandemic ravaged first the domestic economy and then other parts of the world. Demand and production in the industrial sector were both weighed down, hitting commodity prices.
Now, driven by improved domestic demand and rising prices for crude oil, iron ore and other raw materials, Chinese producer prices rose 1.0% in January compared with a month earlier, China’s National Bureau of Statistics said Wednesday.
With industrial production and demand continuing to improve, China’s producer-price index will likely remain in positive territory for the rest of the year, said Zhang Ning, an economist at UBS.
That will likely boost earnings growth for China’s industrial sector, underpinning China’s continued economic recovery this year, Mr. Zhang said. Most forecasters expect China’s gross domestic product to increase by roughly 8% or more this year after recording an economic expansion of 2.3% last year.
