Deutsche Bank venter en minusvækst i Tyskland i første kvartal på 2 pct., hvorefter der kommer et opsving i løbet af sommeren. Inflationen er steget overraskende meget i januar, med 1 pct., og banken venter en inflation på 2 pct. for hele året med en stigende tendens til 3 pct. ved årets afslutning. Dog venter banken et fald til 1,25 pct. i første kvartal næste år.
German GDP: Down (Q1) but not out (in 2021) – Inflation reaching 2%
German GDP: Down (Q1) but not out (in 2021). The longer “hard” lockdown, weather-related losses in construction and impairments in car output due to chip supply problems have prompted us to cut our Q1 GDP forecast to -2% qoq.
We continue to expect a strong rebound in the summer half propelled by healthy global demand, supportive fiscal and monetary policy and German households’ pent-up demand.
Inflation: Now expecting 2% for 2021! The Jan print of 1% yoy surprised massively to the upside, in part due to one-offs. But the strong rise in core goods prices begs the question whether the Jan readings could herald stronger underlying inflation dynamics. There are still strong arguments for a continuation of structurally low inflation dynamics.
However, we see risk that price dynamics could strengthen more strongly through impaired supply conditions. Overall, we now project the inflation rate to average 2.0% in 2021. Towards the end of 2021 the headline rate could spike to as much as 3% before easing to 1 ½% in Q1 2022.
