Australien føler sig fanget af de lave renter, som har fået boligpriserne til at eksplodere. Hvordan kan boligpriserne bremses, når renten ifølge centralbanken ikke må sættes i vejret? De høje boligpriser gør det svært for unge at kunne købe en bolig. Derfor overvejer regeringen at stramme reglerne for boliglån, f.eks. om lånenes størrelse. Den høje private opsparing som en konsekvens af coronakrisen har også forværret problemet med høje boligpriser.
Uddrag fra Fidelity/Dow Jones:
Australia May Clamp Down on Mortgage Lending to Cool Home Prices
The recent surge in Australia’s home prices and rising evidence of deterioration in the quality of mortgage lending may force the hand of the country’s banking regulator before the end of the year, with measures to cool the property market.
House prices in Australia have returned to record levels, buoyed by ultralow interest rates, a big jump in household savings, and the Reserve Bank of Australia’s insistence that interest rates aren’t likely to be nudged higher before 2024 “at the earliest.”
Economists warn that in the absence of a rise in interest rates, the use of so-called macroprudential tools will be needed to prevent an overheating of the property market that could drive up household debt, and push new buyers to the sidelines.
“We are starting to see some increase in risky lending, albeit from a low base. I’m expecting macro prudential tightening from later this year but given the speed with which lending and the property market is hotting up, it could come earlier,” said Shane Oliver, chief economist at AMP Capital.
Measures to slow house-price growth could include a return to speed limits on investor loan growth and limits around the size of loans that can be accessed, Mr. Oliver said.
The Australian Prudential Regulation Authority, the country’s banking regulator, has in the past successfully deployed macro prudential tools after house prices jumped on low interest rates following the global financial crisis.
Reserve Bank of Australia Gov. Philip Lowe has said he is carefully watching the rise in house prices, but added that it isn’t the job of the central bank to target the property market.
Nevertheless, he will welcome moves to cool house prices if they become overheated.
Despite a pummeling of the economy in the first half of 2020 due to the Covid-19 pandemic, house prices have remained resilient.
Economists initially feared big falls in residential house prices as unemployment rose and borders were closed to immigration. But the property market has bounced as a wave of fiscal stimulus has ended up in savings accounts.
House prices in Sydney, Australia’s largest regional property market, achieved record peaks this month. The recovery in Sydney follows a 15.3% decline from July 2017 to May 2019.
“The fresh record high is great news for Sydney home owners, but highlights the challenges for non-home owners looking to participate in the housing market as values rise faster than incomes,” said Tim Lawless, head of research at CoreLogic.
George Tharenou, chief economist at UBS, said it is only a matter of time before APRA clamps down on mortgage lending.
APRA’s own data on home lending in the fourth quarter published Wednesday showed a significant rise in “higher risk” mortgage lending, Mr. Tharenou said. It is reasonable to think that the deterioration in loan quality extended into the first three months of this year, he added.
The share of new home loans with a high debt-to-income ratio rose to 59.3% in the fourth quarter from 57.7% in the third quarter, while loans with high loan to valuation ratios spiked to 42.0% from 39.9%, the APRA data showed.
Interest-only home loans picked up to a 19.3% share in the fourth quarter from 18.7% in the third quarter, the highest ratio since mid-2019.
Felicity Emmett, senior economist at ANZ Bank, said lending standards are definitely on the decline.
“Given that house prices and finance have continued to rise strongly into the first quarter, I expect that there will be a further rise in the share of these higher risk loans,” she said.
