Ifølge en analyse fra Deutsche Bank får vi den stærkeste fremgang med el-biler i Kina og Europa – bemærkelsesværdigt kommer Europa tæt på Kina i udviklingen frem til 2030, hvor andelen af el-biler, der er batteridrevne, ventes at blive på ca. 40 pct., lidt mere for Kina end for Europa. Det er lovgivningen i både Kina og EU, som driver produktionen af el-biler. USA er ikke kommet på niveau, og dér er CO2-udledningen fra biler langt større end i Kina og EU.
How does regulation drive electric vehicle penetration?
Increasing EV penetration is a key action to help reduce Emissions
Emissions regulation is a global topic which has gained additional support following the Paris Agreement (2015) aimed at achieving net zero GHG emissions by 2050. Globally, transport represents ~16% of total GHG emissions. In the US, the EPA reports that the sector represents an estimated 28% of its emissions, with light-duty vehicles and medium/heavy duty trucks accounting for 59% and 23% of that total, respectively.
Estimates for China vary, but they are in the range of 7-10%. In Europe, it is estimated that passenger cars and vans represent ~15% of CO2 emissions. Since 2015, China has increased its penetration of BEV’s (battery electric vehicles) from 0.6% to 4.6% in 2020, while Europe has raised the level from 0.5% to 5.0% over the same time period (see figure 2). The US percentage remains low arguably because of lack of regulation and infrastructure limitations, though the rate did more than double from 0.4% to 1.2%.
Europe and China also have infrastructure limitations, but they already have clear regulatory frameworks with
ambitious reduction targets which should continue drive EV adoption higher, with penetration levels expected to be double digits by 2022.
Under Biden’s administration in the US, there will be more support. His infrastructure plan should help, though more details and incentives are needed to effect meaningful change. Using a phased approach, China will raise the NEV target 2pts each year to 20% by 2025, with the average fuel economy not exceeding 4 liters per 100km for passenger cars.
Europe has the most ambitious targets
The average level of emissions for new cars registered in 2019 in the EU, Iceland and Norway was 122.4 g/CO2/km. Under EU standards for 2021, the average emission target (per OEM fleet) for new passenger
cars is 95 g CO2/km.
