Indtjeningen i virksomhederne har forbedret sig langt hurtigere og stærkere end frygtet, og det gælder især i USA og Kina. Indtjeningen er mindst 10 pct. højere end forventet. Det ligger bag de store kursstigninger. Den store overraskelse er, hvor solidt virksomhederne er kommet gennem pandemien. Fremover vil mega-tech aktier stadig være attraktive, mener JPMorgan. Der vil være øget fokus på ESG, og de mindre selskaber vil fortsat outperforme de store.
Global Equity Views 2Q 2021
- Corporate profits are recovering rapidly around the world, led by the U.S. and China. We think that profits will continue to grow strongly and outpace expectations, although we need to watch out for higher taxes and inflation as the potential costs of the pandemic response.
- Equity markets have delivered robust returns this year as profits have surged, but high valuations temper our enthusiasm. Speculative activity has moderated in recent weeks—a healthier sign. But the gap between cheap and expensive stocks remains very wide, suggesting plenty of opportunities for stock selection.
- Three themes from our recent investment quarterly:
–Some mega cap technology stocks remain attractive even as value investing enjoys a renaissance.
–Paying attention to environmental, social and governance (ESG) factors can help returns, and we think the trend will continue.
–U.S. small cap stocks appear to be set for further outperformance.
Taking stock
The recovery in corporate profits from a brief but pronounced collapse in mid-2020 has accelerated since our last Investors Quarterly, exceeding our expectations to a striking degree.
A year ago, we thought that 2021 profits would remain below pre-pandemic levels. We now see results at least 10% higher. The companies that had been seen as most likely to adapt to the COVID-19-driven shutdowns have not disappointed, and the technology sector has done better than we expected.
But the real surprise has been the resilience and subsequent rebound for many of the groups most affected by the pandemic.
