Citi analyserer teknologi-sektorens udvikling. Tech-boblen under pandemien begynder at blive punkteret i nogle afgrænsede segmenter. Citi mener, at det kan ramme video-gaming, telemedicin og kunstig intelligens. Men der er ikke udsigt til et massivt skifte fra tech-aktier trods de enorme kursstigningen det seneste halvandet år. Den aktuelle bekymring om prisudviklingen og inflationen skal investorerne ikke tage som et alvorligt problem, for set i lyset af de dramatiske ændringer det seneste år er det kun forståeligt, at priserne ryger en smule i vejret, mener Citi.
Does Technology Rally Have an Inflation Problem?
On 12 May, the Nasdaq fell 2.7%. Market participants pointed to the nearly 1% jump in April US consumer prices as the reason for the decline.
Citi analysts highlighted the valuation pressures that have gradually emerged for US growth stocks as markets no longer assume a zero cash discount rate in perpetuity. And Citi analysts expressed our view that rates are likely to rise further when the full, new economic recovery gets underway across the world in the near future.
But the mere fact that rates could rise does not spell the end of the rise of technology in the economy or doom tech share performance.
The US economy has seen record volatility in the collapse and recovery from COVID-19. Employment and retail sales have seen record swings. In this temporarily distorted economy, should we really expect stable consumer prices? Citi analysts think otherwise.
The Nasdaq rose 47% in 2020 partly on extrapolation of COVID-19’s powerful reallocation to technological solutions. The modest rise in interest rates has taken some steam out of the performance of growth shares.
Making a massive shift into a still highly valued, “cooling” tech sector is not Citi’s strategy. However, the large dislocation in “unstoppable trends” is beginning to create opportunities for investors.
The technology correction is underway. The ascent of value versus growth (mean reversion), the impact of higher rates on shares that must grow into their valuations, a glut of new equity including Special Purpose Acquisition Company (SPACs) and retail investor dynamics suggest that further short-term weakness in areas like video gaming, telemedicine, and artificial intelligence is possible.
