Annonce

Log ud Log ind
Log ud Log ind
Finans

Merrill: Emerging Markets er blevet mere solide som investeringsmål

Hugo Gaarden

torsdag 20. maj 2021 kl. 13:11

Merrill har analyseret Emerging Markets i forhold til industrilandenes markeder. Selv om der er store forskelle i EM, så er EM-landene som helhed blevet økonomisk mere stabile de seneste år, og de er blevet mere solide som investeringsmål, især i lyset af, at markederne i USA og Europa kan blive påvirket negativt af stigende inflation og rentestigninger. Der er altså et alternativ.

Uddrag fra Merrill:

A Two-Tiered Trend in Emerging Markets

The recent equity market selloff has fallen unevenly across the emerging world, but EM as
a group have so far been relatively resilient.

As a measure of reliance on external funding and vulnerability to higher yields, the current account positions for 13 of 20 major EM were in deficit at the time of the taper tantrum (in 2013), representing 44% of EM market capitalization at the time. But today only five of the same 20 EM have negative current account balances, representing just 6% of total EM market cap (Exhibit 2).

Rather than a broad-based flight from EM risk, the inflation scare has produced a similar
rotation across EM sectors and regions as that seen in the rest of the world. Weakness in
high-growth areas with higher-duration cashflows, such as information technology,
internet retail and communications services, has contributed to the significant
underperformance in the tech-driven north Asian markets of China, Korea and Taiwan.

By contrast, outperformance in cyclical sectors tied more closely to the near-term economic
recovery and steepening yield curve has been a tailwind for the other major regions of
Latin America and EMEA (Europe, Middle East and Africa), both of which have climbed this
month in absolute terms despite the pickup in volatility.

This divergence highlights the two-tiered style composition of the aggregate EM equity market, in which a few heavyweight countries in north Asia have limited exposure (21%) to the cyclically oriented sectors of Energy, Materials, Industrials and Financials, while the remainder of the index in
the EMEA and Latin America regions has a much higher concentration in these four
sectors of 60% to 70% (Exhibit 3).

But looking ahead to the rest of 2021 and into next year, we still expect EM to remain
relatively resilient with a narrower divergence between these two tiers of a growth oriented Asia and other more cyclically driven regions. Goods exporters in Asia should
ultimately benefit from stronger growth in most developed economies on the back of the
boost from government stimulus, economic reopening and strong household finances.

High asset prices, rising employment levels and double-digit growth in household bank
deposits across the U.S., Europe and Japan should provide fuel for developed market
consumption in the coming quarters, with the IMF projecting stronger real gross domestic
product (GDP) growth in 2021 for developed economies in aggregate (5.1%) than for all
EM regions outside Asia (8.6%), including Latin America (4.6%), emerging Europe (4.4%),
the Middle East (3.7%) and Africa (3.4%).

 

Tilmeld dig vores gratis nyhedsbrev
ØU Top100 Finansvirksomhed

Få de vigtigste om bank, realkredit, forsikring, pension
Udkommer hver mandag.

Jeg giver samtykke til, at I sender mig mails med de seneste historier fra Økonomisk Ugebrev. Lejlighedsvis må I gerne sende mig gode tilbud og information om events. Samtidig accepterer jeg ØU’s Privatlivspolitik.

Du kan til enhver tid afmelde dig med et enkelt klik.

[postviewcount]

Jobannoncer

Direktør for Forsvarsministeriets Personalestyrelse
Region Hovedstaden
Finance Controller – få sparringspartnere fra hele Europa (fuldtid)
Region Syddanmark
Nyt job
Er du økonom, og drømmer du om at bidrage til et bedre sundhedsvæsen og være tæt på beslutningerne på en af landets største børne- og ungeafdelinger?
Region Hovedstaden
Udløber snart
Er du Midtsjællands stærkeste økonomiansvarlige?
Region Sjælland
Udløber snart
Informationsspecialist til Data Governance
Region Hovedstaden
Udløber snart
Business Analyst
Region Sjælland
Erhvervsministeriet søger kontorchef til analyse på det erhvervsøkonomiske område
Region Hovedstaden
Udløber snart
Økonomiassistent til Aabenraa Havn
Region Syd
Leder af Løn og Vilkår
Region Hovedstaden
Forsker eller seniorforsker til økonomiske analyser af arbejdsmarked, sundhed og arbejdsmiljø
Region Hovedstaden
Økonomikonsulent til fagforbund
Region Hovedstaden

Mere fra ØU Finans

Log ind

Har du ikke allerede en bruger? Opret dig her.

FÅ VORES STORE NYTÅRSUDGAVE AF FORMUE

Her er de 10 bedste aktier i 2022

Tilbuddet udløber om:
dage
timer
min.
sek.

Analyse af og prognoser for Fixed Income (statsrenter og realkreditrenter)

Direkte adgang til opdaterede analyser fra toneangivende finanshuse:

Goldman Sachs

Fidelity

Danske Bank

Morgan Stanley

ABN Amro

Jyske Bank

UBS

SEB

Natixis

Handelsbanken

Merril Lynch 

Direkte adgang til realkreditinstitutternes renteprognoser:

Nykredit

Realkredit Danmark

Nordea

Analyse og prognoser for kort rente, samt for centralbankernes politikker

Links:

RBC

Capital Economics

Yardeni – Central Bank Balance Sheet 

Investing.com: FED Watch Monitor Tool

Nordea

Scotiabank