Mange aktionærer mener, at aktiemarkederne bliver som de vilde 20’ere i forrige århundrede, mens andre frygter en ny økonomisk nedtur. Natixis forsøger at vurdere, hvor holdbart markedet er. Natixis mener, at volatiliteten er faldet i de vigtigste sektorer som teknologi og small cap, men banken venter, at industriens vækst trods alt topper i andet halvår, omend der vil være en stærk vækst i servicesektoren. Infrastrukturen får stor betydning som økonomisk drivkraft i USA i kraft af Bidens investeringspakker, men de får først virkning et godt stykke ind i 2022.
Uddrag fra Natixis:
Roaring 20s or Economic Slowdown Ahead?
As the reopening of the US economy continues, and as the Covid-19 vaccination rollout continues to help progress the reopening of the US and other countries, Chris Wallis, CEO, Portfolio Manager at Vaughan Nelson Investment Management, assesses the strength of equity markets and certain sectors going forward. He also shares insight on how President Biden’s infrastructure plans might inject further growth into the US economy.
- It’s understandable why a lot of investors consider the current environment similar to the Roaring ‘20s. There has been an incredibly strong rally; we are probably seeing the best economic growth numbers we may see in a lifetime. But we are reasonably far advanced from a reopening standpoint.
- Currently, over the short term, volatility has continued to fall across key sectors: small caps, tech, industrials, and energy. Cross-asset volatility has been very much supportive of equity fundamentals.
- That said, it’s clear we are going to have a peak in industrial growth later this year.
- We’ll probably start to see industrial’s rate of improvement peak. Strong growth out of the services side of the economy should continue.
- Infrastructure is going to be a key part of real economic growth well into the future.
- Even if Congress passes this infrastructure bill later in the third or fourth quarter of 2021, those funds really won’t begin to hit the real economy until well into 2022.
