Uddrag fra ABG’s analyse af GreenMobility:
- GM pre-announces in-line Q2, lowers ambitions
- Delays roll-out and ‘up to’ DKK 150m rights issue
- GM reiterates 2025 targets; we postpone positive FCF
Cost-saving until operational financing becomes clear
This week, GreenMobility pre-announced H1’21 revenue of DKK ~26m (in line with ABGSCe at DKK 26m) and EBT of -DKK ~30m (ABGSCe: -DKK 37m). The company announced that it will deliver all-time high revenues in Copenhagen during Q2, and that it reached DKK 9.4k/car/month in June (vs. its break-even target of DKK 10k). For FY’21, the firm adjusted its revenue guidance to DKK 60-70m (DKK 70-80m) and increased EBIT guidance to DKKm -55 to -60 (DKKm -100 to -110). The guidance adjustment aligns with GreenMobility’s new target to roll out “up to 550” cars in 2021 (vs. 1,050-1,550 previously). It reiterates its plan to launch in 4-6 cities during the year and sees break-even in Aarhus and profit in Copenhagen. As a result of the slower roll-out, it has also cut headcount by 12 people across the group.
GM postpones equity raise until pre-Q4 (prev. pre-Q3)
Given the revised ambitions, we decrease the number of EVs and total customers in our model by ~40% for 2021-23e. Fewer new EVs means less dilution on the already rolled out EV’s, so we raise our total revenue/EV by 60% for 2021-23e, which increases our revenue mix significantly; we thus increase EBIT by 40% for 2021-23e. However, we also increase the pace of the roll-out in our mid-term estimates, as the company has reiterated its target to roll out 10k EVs across 25 cities by 2025, leading us to postpone our positive FCF estimates to 2030-31e (prev. 2027-28e). To finance its strategic ambitions until ~mid-2022e, the company has postponed its planned equity rights issue of up to DKK 150m to pre-Q4 (prev. pre-Q3). The company was granted a DKK 100m loan facility from the Danish green investment fund during Q2.
